Hysan Development Company Limited

SZSC:14 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$12.8b

Hysan Development Valuation

Is 14 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 14 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 14 (HK$12.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$4.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 14 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 14?

Key metric: As 14 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 14. This is calculated by dividing 14's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 14's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.9x
SalesHK$3.27b
Market CapHK$12.84b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 14's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 14 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
10 Hang Lung Group
1.1xn/aHK$13.5b
1528 Red Star Macalline Group
0.9x1.6%HK$15.1b
6666 Evergrande Property Services Group
0.6xn/aHK$9.0b
2869 Greentown Service Group
0.6x9.3%HK$12.0b
14 Hysan Development
3.9x2.7%HK$12.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 14 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 14's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

90 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1908 C&D International Investment Group
0.2x3.1%US$3.37b
3900 Greentown China Holdings
0.2x-0.4%US$3.02b
1918 Sunac China Holdings
0.2x-14.2%US$2.80b
817 China Jinmao Holdings Group
0.2x-1.0%US$1.82b
14 3.9xIndustry Avg. 0.6xNo. of Companies90PS00.81.62.43.24+
90 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 14 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 14's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

14 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.9x
Fair PS Ratio4.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 14 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 14 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$12.50
HK$14.74
+17.9%
14.2%HK$18.40HK$11.20n/a13
Nov ’25HK$12.66
HK$14.74
+16.4%
14.2%HK$18.40HK$11.20n/a13
Oct ’25HK$13.44
HK$14.02
+4.3%
12.3%HK$18.00HK$11.20n/a13
Sep ’25HK$12.56
HK$13.92
+10.8%
12.3%HK$18.00HK$11.20n/a13
Aug ’25HK$10.64
HK$14.56
+36.8%
15.6%HK$18.00HK$11.00n/a13
Jul ’25HK$11.22
HK$16.23
+44.7%
16.1%HK$23.80HK$13.70n/a13
Jun ’25HK$12.10
HK$16.23
+34.2%
16.1%HK$23.80HK$13.70n/a13
May ’25HK$12.24
HK$16.31
+33.3%
16.0%HK$23.80HK$13.70n/a13
Apr ’25HK$12.62
HK$16.77
+32.9%
16.0%HK$23.80HK$13.70n/a13
Mar ’25HK$12.86
HK$16.77
+30.4%
16.0%HK$23.80HK$13.70n/a13
Feb ’25HK$13.34
HK$21.07
+57.9%
17.4%HK$28.00HK$17.70n/a12
Jan ’25HK$15.50
HK$23.78
+53.4%
13.9%HK$30.00HK$19.00n/a12
Dec ’24HK$14.72
HK$25.66
+74.3%
15.1%HK$34.80HK$20.00n/a12
Nov ’24HK$14.60
HK$25.49
+74.6%
16.2%HK$34.80HK$18.00HK$12.6612
Oct ’24HK$15.18
HK$25.53
+68.2%
15.6%HK$34.80HK$18.00HK$13.4413
Sep ’24HK$16.34
HK$26.07
+59.5%
12.8%HK$34.80HK$22.10HK$12.5613
Aug ’24HK$18.54
HK$28.12
+51.6%
12.3%HK$34.80HK$22.10HK$10.6413
Jul ’24HK$19.12
HK$29.03
+51.8%
10.8%HK$34.80HK$23.00HK$11.2213
Jun ’24HK$19.92
HK$29.19
+46.5%
12.4%HK$34.80HK$20.00HK$12.1013
May ’24HK$22.15
HK$29.50
+33.2%
11.5%HK$34.80HK$20.00HK$12.2413
Apr ’24HK$22.30
HK$29.46
+32.1%
11.5%HK$34.80HK$20.00HK$12.6213
Mar ’24HK$25.45
HK$29.46
+15.7%
11.5%HK$34.80HK$20.00HK$12.8613
Feb ’24HK$26.35
HK$28.63
+8.7%
14.7%HK$35.00HK$20.00HK$13.3413
Jan ’24HK$25.30
HK$25.21
-0.4%
15.6%HK$31.50HK$20.00HK$15.5013
Dec ’23HK$21.05
HK$24.24
+15.2%
15.6%HK$30.25HK$19.10HK$14.7213
Nov ’23HK$17.50
HK$25.83
+47.6%
13.3%HK$32.00HK$20.00HK$14.6013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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