Stock Analysis

Shareholders in China Jinmao Holdings Group (HKG:817) have lost 83%, as stock drops 6.3% this past week

SEHK:817
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Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. Imagine if you held China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited (HKG:817) for half a decade as the share price tanked 88%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 62% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 18% in the last three months. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

With the stock having lost 6.3% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

See our latest analysis for China Jinmao Holdings Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

In the last half decade China Jinmao Holdings Group saw its share price fall as its EPS declined below zero. The recent extraordinary items contributed to this situation. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:817 Earnings Per Share Growth March 21st 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on China Jinmao Holdings Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for China Jinmao Holdings Group the TSR over the last 5 years was -83%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that China Jinmao Holdings Group shareholders are down 60% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 7.6%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 13% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Jinmao Holdings Group (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: China Jinmao Holdings Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.