CanSino Biologics (SHSC:6185) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 6185 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

6185 (HK$26.95) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$258.92)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6185 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6185 (HK$26.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$258.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6185 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6185?

Key metric: As 6185 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 6185. This is calculated by dividing 6185's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 6185's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	8.3x
Sales	CN¥748.53m
Market Cap	CN¥10.44b

6185 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	12.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-11.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 6185's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 6185 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	18.2x
9969 InnoCare Pharma	11.2x	25.9%	HK$12.9b
1877 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences	6.4x	29.6%	HK$26.7b
1167 Jacobio Pharmaceuticals Group	48.8x	-2.4%	HK$1.2b
6660 AIM Vaccine	6.2x	n/a	HK$7.9b
6185 CanSino Biologics	8.3x	33.3%	HK$11.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 6185 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (18.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 6185's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Biotechs Industry?

14 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
6826 Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology	2.1x	11.8%	US$1.79b
1530 3SBio	1.4x	9.3%	US$1.67b
2696 Shanghai Henlius Biotech	1.8x	10.1%	US$1.41b
775 CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings)	0.8x	n/a	US$549.41m

14 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 6185 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Biotechs industry average (11.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6185's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6185 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	8.3x
Fair PS Ratio	4.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 6185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6185 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$26.95	HK$29.92 +11.0%	18.6%	HK$37.51	HK$22.47	n/a	5
Nov ’25	HK$27.10	HK$29.93 +10.4%	18.6%	HK$37.51	HK$22.47	n/a	5
Oct ’25	HK$28.50	HK$27.02 -5.2%	22.5%	HK$38.15	HK$21.08	n/a	5
Sep ’25	HK$18.26	HK$27.10 +48.4%	23.3%	HK$38.72	HK$21.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	HK$18.78	HK$27.61 +47.0%	21.6%	HK$37.83	HK$21.40	n/a	5
Jul ’25	HK$19.54	HK$27.61 +41.3%	21.6%	HK$37.83	HK$21.40	n/a	5
Jun ’25	HK$20.35	HK$27.72 +36.2%	21.8%	HK$38.03	HK$21.33	n/a	5
May ’25	HK$17.92	HK$26.33 +47.0%	31.1%	HK$41.52	HK$18.50	n/a	5
Apr ’25	HK$15.92	HK$26.11 +64.0%	31.3%	HK$41.52	HK$18.50	n/a	5
Mar ’25	HK$17.94	HK$34.80 +94.0%	14.1%	HK$41.84	HK$28.89	n/a	5
Feb ’25	HK$16.76	HK$34.80 +107.6%	14.1%	HK$41.84	HK$28.89	n/a	5
Jan ’25	HK$23.55	HK$77.44 +228.8%	80.6%	HK$199.72	HK$34.68	n/a	5
Dec ’24	HK$26.10	HK$87.07 +233.6%	75.7%	HK$199.37	HK$38.01	n/a	4
Nov ’24	HK$25.30	HK$103.18 +307.8%	66.4%	HK$198.90	HK$42.02	HK$27.10	3
Oct ’24	HK$24.40	HK$95.30 +290.6%	64.2%	HK$198.83	HK$42.00	HK$28.50	4
Sep ’24	HK$23.00	HK$87.42 +280.1%	67.0%	HK$200.99	HK$34.96	HK$18.26	5
Aug ’24	HK$30.20	HK$101.78 +237.0%	51.2%	HK$188.65	HK$60.01	HK$18.78	4
Jul ’24	HK$26.15	HK$107.77 +312.1%	44.5%	HK$188.06	HK$62.15	HK$19.54	4
Jun ’24	HK$29.30	HK$112.01 +282.3%	40.4%	HK$196.85	HK$65.05	HK$20.35	5
May ’24	HK$37.10	HK$112.01 +201.9%	40.4%	HK$196.85	HK$65.05	HK$17.92	5
Apr ’24	HK$42.00	HK$122.40 +191.4%	38.8%	HK$196.81	HK$65.00	HK$15.92	6
Mar ’24	HK$61.40	HK$128.74 +109.7%	34.1%	HK$196.31	HK$76.25	HK$17.94	6
Feb ’24	HK$67.90	HK$133.86 +97.1%	35.2%	HK$211.03	HK$77.96	HK$16.76	6
Jan ’24	HK$66.75	HK$126.06 +88.9%	34.7%	HK$197.92	HK$73.12	HK$23.55	6
Dec ’23	HK$89.80	HK$126.06 +40.4%	34.7%	HK$197.92	HK$73.12	HK$26.10	6
Nov ’23	HK$86.30	HK$111.95 +29.7%	40.2%	HK$195.61	HK$72.26	HK$25.30	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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CanSino Biologics Valuation