Alphamab Oncology Valuation
Is 9966 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 9966 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 9966 (HK$4.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$34.5)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 9966 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9966?
Key metric: As 9966 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 9966's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 15.3x |
| Sales | CN¥255.87m |
| Market Cap | CN¥3.91b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 10.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -12.4x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does 9966's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 7.5x | ||
6955 Shandong Boan Biotechnology | 5.6x | 29.0% | HK$4.3b |
775 CK Life Sciences Int'l. (Holdings) | 0.8x | n/a | HK$4.3b |
2157 Lepu Biopharma | 21.8x | 65.6% | HK$4.8b |
2696 Shanghai Henlius Biotech | 1.8x | 10.1% | HK$11.0b |
9966 Alphamab Oncology | 15.3x | 39.4% | HK$4.2b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 9966 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (15.3x) compared to the peer average (7.5x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does 9966's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 9966 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (15.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Biotechs industry average (11.9x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 9966's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 15.3x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 8.7x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 9966 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (15.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.7x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$4.36 | HK$4.37 +0.3% | 46.4% | HK$7.19 | HK$2.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$3.67 | HK$4.37 +19.1% | 46.4% | HK$7.19 | HK$2.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$4.72 | HK$4.37 -7.4% | 46.4% | HK$7.19 | HK$2.50 | n/a | 3 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$2.47 | HK$4.28 +73.3% | 45.3% | HK$6.98 | HK$2.49 | n/a | 3 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$2.24 | HK$4.28 +91.1% | 45.3% | HK$6.98 | HK$2.49 | n/a | 3 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$2.40 | HK$4.41 +83.8% | 38.4% | HK$6.98 | HK$2.49 | n/a | 4 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$2.54 | HK$3.55 +39.9% | 26.3% | HK$4.77 | HK$2.50 | n/a | 3 |
| May ’25 | HK$4.75 | HK$4.56 -4.1% | 15.5% | HK$5.28 | HK$3.60 | n/a | 3 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$4.53 | HK$5.28 +16.6% | 7.5% | HK$5.76 | HK$4.80 | n/a | 3 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$4.91 | HK$7.66 +56.1% | 25.5% | HK$10.36 | HK$5.78 | n/a | 3 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$4.08 | HK$8.30 +103.5% | 23.9% | HK$10.42 | HK$5.82 | n/a | 4 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$6.64 | HK$8.70 +31.0% | 19.9% | HK$10.70 | HK$6.94 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$6.34 | HK$9.76 +54.0% | 27.2% | HK$14.09 | HK$6.93 | n/a | 5 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$11.62 | HK$9.88 -14.9% | 23.5% | HK$13.81 | HK$6.94 | HK$3.67 | 5 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$8.60 | HK$9.88 +14.9% | 23.5% | HK$13.81 | HK$6.94 | HK$4.72 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$8.63 | HK$10.46 +21.2% | 28.4% | HK$14.17 | HK$6.95 | HK$2.47 | 5 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$9.07 | HK$12.21 +34.6% | 29.3% | HK$16.70 | HK$7.00 | HK$2.24 | 5 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$7.48 | HK$15.91 +112.7% | 11.9% | HK$19.58 | HK$14.01 | HK$2.40 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$8.00 | HK$16.07 +100.8% | 12.1% | HK$19.91 | HK$14.24 | HK$2.54 | 6 |
| May ’24 | HK$15.30 | HK$16.39 +7.1% | 12.4% | HK$20.49 | HK$14.25 | HK$4.75 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$13.18 | HK$14.94 +13.3% | 22.8% | HK$20.52 | HK$10.51 | HK$4.53 | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$15.20 | HK$15.35 +1.0% | 21.6% | HK$20.51 | HK$10.51 | HK$4.91 | 7 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$14.84 | HK$14.35 -3.3% | 26.2% | HK$20.90 | HK$10.50 | HK$4.08 | 7 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$10.80 | HK$14.00 +29.7% | 25.8% | HK$20.31 | HK$10.41 | HK$6.64 | 7 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$8.67 | HK$13.10 +51.1% | 27.5% | HK$19.12 | HK$9.92 | HK$6.34 | 6 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$5.77 | HK$13.10 +127.1% | 27.5% | HK$19.12 | HK$9.92 | HK$11.62 | 6 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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