Ocumension Therapeutics

SEHK:1477 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$4.2b

Ocumension Therapeutics Valuation

Is 1477 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1477 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1477 (HK$5.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$12.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1477 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1477?

Key metric: As 1477 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1477. This is calculated by dividing 1477's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1477's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio12.7x
SalesCN¥310.29m
Market CapCN¥3.95b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1477's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1477 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.5x
1558 YiChang HEC ChangJiang Pharmaceutical
1.4x2.0%HK$8.2b
2877 China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group
1.4x12.8%HK$6.1b
1666 Tong Ren Tang Technologies
0.9x7.8%HK$6.4b
1681 Consun Pharmaceutical Group
2.3x13.3%HK$6.8b
1477 Ocumension Therapeutics
12.7x39.3%HK$4.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1477 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1477's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Pharmaceuticals Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3320 China Resources Pharmaceutical Group
0.1x8.0%US$4.18b
8329 Shenzhen Neptunus Interlong Bio-technique
0.2xn/aUS$29.96m
1312 Kontafarma China Holdings
0.2xn/aUS$22.26m
No more companies available in this PS range
1477 12.7xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies6PS01.22.43.64.86+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1477 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals industry average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1477's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1477 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio12.7x
Fair PS Ratio6.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1477 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1477 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$5.19
HK$9.92
+91.2%
14.2%HK$11.92HK$8.81n/a3
Nov ’25HK$5.50
HK$9.92
+80.5%
14.2%HK$11.92HK$8.81n/a3
Oct ’25HK$6.30
HK$9.88
+56.8%
13.0%HK$11.69HK$8.85n/a3
Sep ’25HK$5.63
HK$9.84
+74.8%
12.7%HK$11.61HK$8.89n/a3
Aug ’25HK$7.06
HK$9.32
+32.0%
23.7%HK$12.25HK$6.93n/a3
Jul ’25HK$6.85
HK$9.37
+36.8%
23.3%HK$12.27HK$6.99n/a3
Jun ’25HK$6.78
HK$9.37
+38.2%
23.3%HK$12.27HK$6.99n/a3
May ’25HK$7.18
HK$8.41
+17.2%
32.7%HK$12.26HK$5.98n/a3
Apr ’25HK$5.78
HK$8.41
+45.6%
32.7%HK$12.26HK$5.98n/a3
Mar ’25HK$5.11
HK$11.66
+128.2%
18.7%HK$14.73HK$8.84n/a4
Feb ’25HK$4.81
HK$11.66
+142.4%
18.7%HK$14.73HK$8.84n/a4
Jan ’25HK$6.68
HK$12.76
+91.1%
18.9%HK$15.52HK$9.96n/a4
Dec ’24HK$6.87
HK$12.88
+87.5%
16.5%HK$15.49HK$10.60n/a4
Nov ’24HK$7.59
HK$12.88
+69.7%
16.5%HK$15.49HK$10.60HK$5.504
Oct ’24HK$7.65
HK$12.88
+68.4%
16.5%HK$15.49HK$10.60HK$6.304
Sep ’24HK$8.26
HK$13.09
+58.4%
15.0%HK$15.53HK$11.00HK$5.634
Aug ’24HK$9.80
HK$14.04
+43.2%
15.8%HK$17.54HK$11.46HK$7.064
Jul ’24HK$7.62
HK$14.73
+93.3%
9.1%HK$16.74HK$13.10HK$6.854
Jun ’24HK$6.96
HK$15.25
+119.0%
9.2%HK$17.52HK$13.70HK$6.784
May ’24HK$8.82
HK$15.25
+72.8%
9.2%HK$17.52HK$13.70HK$7.184
Apr ’24HK$10.02
HK$15.91
+58.8%
6.9%HK$17.54HK$14.75HK$5.784
Mar ’24HK$10.02
HK$15.90
+58.7%
7.4%HK$17.69HK$14.69HK$5.114
Feb ’24HK$12.80
HK$17.25
+34.7%
9.0%HK$18.74HK$15.00HK$4.814
Jan ’24HK$9.81
HK$16.66
+69.8%
8.8%HK$18.00HK$14.41HK$6.684
Dec ’23HK$8.03
HK$16.18
+101.5%
8.3%HK$17.52HK$14.09HK$6.874
Nov ’23HK$7.72
HK$16.22
+110.1%
8.3%HK$17.58HK$14.12HK$7.594

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group

HK$6.1b

An investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and trade of Chinese medicines in the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.

2877

HK$8.13

7D

-3.3%

1Y

n/a

3SBio

HK$13.0b

An investment holding company, develops, produces markets, and sells biopharmaceutical products in Mainland China and internationally.

1530

HK$5.52

7D

-4.3%

1Y

-26.2%

Consun Pharmaceutical Group

HK$6.8b

Researches and develops, manufactures, and sells Chinese medicines and medical contrast medium products in the People’s Republic of China.

1681

HK$8.22

7D

-2.1%

1Y

74.9%