Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Gala Technology Holding Limited (HKG:2458)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Gala Technology Holding is HK$4.23 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With HK$4.30 share price, Gala Technology Holding appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• When compared to theindustry average discount of -261%, Gala Technology Holding's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Gala Technology Holding Limited (HKG:2458) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Gala Technology Holding

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥41.3m	CN¥40.6m	CN¥40.4m	CN¥40.4m	CN¥40.7m	CN¥41.1m	CN¥41.6m	CN¥42.2m	CN¥42.8m	CN¥43.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -3.08%	Est @ -1.62%	Est @ -0.59%	Est @ 0.13%	Est @ 0.63%	Est @ 0.98%	Est @ 1.23%	Est @ 1.40%	Est @ 1.52%	Est @ 1.60%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.9%	CN¥37.9	CN¥34.2	CN¥31.2	CN¥28.7	CN¥26.5	CN¥24.6	CN¥22.8	CN¥21.2	CN¥19.8	CN¥18.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥265m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥43m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8.9%– 1.8%) = CN¥619m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥619m÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)¹⁰= CN¥263m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥528m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$4.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Gala Technology Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.998. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Gala Technology Holding, we've compiled three essential factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Gala Technology Holding that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.