Maoyan Entertainment Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The yearly results for Maoyan Entertainment (HKG:1896) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CN¥0.16, some 53% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CN¥4.1b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Maoyan Entertainment from eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.90b in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 275% to CN¥0.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥4.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.77 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Maoyan Entertainment

The consensus price target held steady at HK$10.31, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Maoyan Entertainment at HK$12.04 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$9.20. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Maoyan Entertainment is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Maoyan Entertainment's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Maoyan Entertainment is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Maoyan Entertainment going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Maoyan Entertainment , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.