Is GDH Guangnan (Holdings) Limited's (HKG:1203) 5.5% Dividend Worth Your Time?

Is GDH Guangnan (Holdings) Limited (HKG:1203) a good dividend stock? How can we tell? Dividend paying companies with growing earnings can be highly rewarding in the long term. On the other hand, investors have been known to buy a stock because of its yield, and then lose money if the company's dividend doesn't live up to expectations.

With GDH Guangnan (Holdings) yielding 5.5% and having paid a dividend for over 10 years, many investors likely find the company quite interesting. It would not be a surprise to discover that many investors buy it for the dividends. Some simple analysis can offer a lot of insights when buying a company for its dividend, and we'll go through this below.

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Payout ratios

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. So we need to form a view on if a company's dividend is sustainable, relative to its net profit after tax. In the last year, GDH Guangnan (Holdings) paid out 53% of its profit as dividends. This is a healthy payout ratio, and while it does limit the amount of earnings that can be reinvested in the business, there is also some room to lift the payout ratio over time.

Another important check we do is to see if the free cash flow generated is sufficient to pay the dividend. GDH Guangnan (Holdings)'s cash payout ratio last year was 5.6%. Cash flows are typically lumpy, but this looks like an appropriately conservative payout. It's encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don't drop precipitously.

With a strong net cash balance, GDH Guangnan (Holdings) investors may not have much to worry about in the near term from a dividend perspective.

Consider getting our latest analysis on GDH Guangnan (Holdings)'s financial position here.

Dividend Volatility

One of the major risks of relying on dividend income, is the potential for a company to struggle financially and cut its dividend. Not only is your income cut, but the value of your investment declines as well - nasty. GDH Guangnan (Holdings) has been paying dividends for a long time, but for the purpose of this analysis, we only examine the past 10 years of payments. This dividend has been unstable, which we define as having been cut one or more times over this time. During the past 10-year period, the first annual payment was HK$0.04 in 2011, compared to HK$0.04 last year. The dividend has shrunk at around 1.2% a year during that period. GDH Guangnan (Holdings)'s dividend has been cut sharply at least once, so it hasn't fallen by 1.2% every year, but this is a decent approximation of the long term change.

We struggle to make a case for buying GDH Guangnan (Holdings) for its dividend, given that payments have shrunk over the past 10 years.

Dividend Growth Potential

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. GDH Guangnan (Holdings)'s earnings per share have shrunk at 13% a year over the past five years. With this kind of significant decline, we always wonder what has changed in the business. Dividends are about stability, and GDH Guangnan (Holdings)'s earnings per share, which support the dividend, have been anything but stable.

Conclusion

Dividend investors should always want to know if a) a company's dividends are affordable, b) if there is a track record of consistent payments, and c) if the dividend is capable of growing. GDH Guangnan (Holdings)'s payout ratios are within a normal range for the average corporation, and we like that its cashflow was stronger than reported profits. Earnings per share have been falling, and the company has cut its dividend at least once in the past. From a dividend perspective, this is a cause for concern. Ultimately, GDH Guangnan (Holdings) comes up short on our dividend analysis. It's not that we think it is a bad company - just that there are likely more appealing dividend prospects out there on this analysis.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. Just as an example, we've come accross 3 warning signs for GDH Guangnan (Holdings) you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of dividend stocks yielding above 3%.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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