Yashili International Holdings (SEHK:1230) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1230 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1230 (HK$1.08) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$1.43)

1230 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

1230 Stock Overview

Yashili International Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells dairy and nourishment products in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 24.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 89.67% per year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for 1230 from our risk checks.

Yashili International Holdings Competitors

Nissin Foods

SEHK:1475

HK$5.5b

Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings

SEHK:6868

HK$5.6b

Health and Happiness (H&H) International Holdings

SEHK:1112

HK$6.7b

Yantai North Andre JuiceLtd

SEHK:2218

HK$6.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Yashili International Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$1.08
52 Week High	HK$1.12
52 Week Low	HK$0.42
Beta	0.84
1 Month Change	-0.92%
3 Month Change	10.20%
1 Year Change	54.29%
3 Year Change	-5.26%
5 Year Change	-26.53%
Change since IPO	-70.65%

Recent News & Updates

May 05

Health Check: How Prudently Does Yashili International Holdings (HKG:1230) Use Debt?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

Shareholder Returns

	1230	HK Food	HK Market
7D	-1.8%	4.1%	3.1%
1Y	54.3%	-22.4%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: 1230 exceeded the Hong Kong Food industry which returned -22.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 1230 exceeded the Hong Kong Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 1230's price volatile compared to industry and market?
1230 volatility
1230 Average Weekly Movement	6.4%
Food Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.7%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 1230 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 1230's weekly volatility has decreased from 15% to 6% over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1983	2,762	Zhiyuan Yan	https://www.yashili.hk

Yashili International Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells dairy and nourishment products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Milk Powder Products; Other Milk Powder Products; Dissolvable Products; and Other Operations. The company provides infant milk formula products under the Yashily, Reeborne, Dumex, Doraler, Toponic, M8, and Arla Baby & Me brand names.

Yashili International Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Yashili International Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
1230 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥4.42b
Earnings (TTM)	-CN¥81.36m
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥4.43b

1.0x

P/S Ratio

-53.8x

P/E Ratio

Is 1230 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
1230 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥4.43b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥3.02b
Gross Profit	CN¥1.41b
Other Expenses	CN¥1.49b
Earnings	-CN¥81.36m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.017
Gross Margin	31.84%
Net Profit Margin	-1.83%
Debt/Equity Ratio	5.8%

How did 1230 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 1230 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1230?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 1230. This is calculated by dividing 1230's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 1230's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥4.42b

1230 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1230's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

1230 PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1230 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.6x
1475 Nissin Foods	1.4x	9.8%	HK$5.5b
6868 Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings	2.5x	n/a	HK$5.6b
1112 Health and Happiness (H&H) International Holdings	0.5x	7.7%	HK$6.7b
2218 Yantai North Andre JuiceLtd	2x	n/a	HK$6.0b
1230 Yashili International Holdings	1x	9.8%	HK$5.2b

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1230 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (1.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1230's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1230 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (0.8x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1230's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1230 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1x
Fair PS Ratio	1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1230 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1230 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1230 (HK$1.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$1.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1230 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 1230's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Yashili International Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

89.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 1230 is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 1230 is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: 1230 is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 1230's revenue (9.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (10.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 1230's revenue (9.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 1230's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (2.5%).

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Past Performance

How has Yashili International Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

65.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 1230 is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: 1230 is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 1230 is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 65.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare 1230's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: 1230 is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Food industry (1.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 1230 has a negative Return on Equity (-1.47%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Yashili International Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 1230's short term assets (CN¥3.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥1.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: 1230's short term assets (CN¥3.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥40.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 1230 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 1230's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 20% to 5.8% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if 1230 has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if 1230 has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

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Dividend

What is Yashili International Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 1230's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 1230's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 1230's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 1230's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: 1230 is not paying a notable dividend for the Hong Kong market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as 1230 has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Zhiyuan Yan (39 yo)

2.42yrs

Tenure

CN¥10,910,000

Compensation

Mr. Zhiyuan Yan has been CEO and Executive Director of the Yashili International Holdings Ltd., since January 8, 2020. Mr. Yan has working experience in China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (‘‘Mengniu’’, to...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Zhiyuan's total compensation ($USD1.63M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD548.93K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Zhiyuan's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 1230's management team is considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 1230's board of directors are considered experienced (7.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31