Is There Now An Opportunity In China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HKG:1117)?

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HKG:1117), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth of 11% on the SEHK over the last few months. Shareholders may appreciate the recent price jump, but the company still has a way to go before reaching its yearly highs again. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at China Modern Dairy Holdings’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for China Modern Dairy Holdings

What Is China Modern Dairy Holdings Worth?

According to our price multiple model, where we compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. We find that China Modern Dairy Holdings’s ratio of 18.79x is above its peer average of 12.97x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Food industry. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that China Modern Dairy Holdings’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from China Modern Dairy Holdings?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. China Modern Dairy Holdings' earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? 1117’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe 1117 should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 1117 for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for 1117, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that China Modern Dairy Holdings has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.

If you are no longer interested in China Modern Dairy Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.