Mongolia Energy's (HKG:276) Performance Raises Some Questions

Investors were disappointed with Mongolia Energy Corporation Limited's (HKG:276) recent earnings release. We did some digging and found some underlying numbers that are worrying.

See our latest analysis for Mongolia Energy

A Closer Look At Mongolia Energy's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to March 2024, Mongolia Energy had an accrual ratio of 0.63. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of HK$443m, which is significantly less than its profit of HK$1.68b. Mongolia Energy shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. One positive for Mongolia Energy shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Mongolia Energy.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Mongolia Energy's profit was boosted by unusual items worth HK$181m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On Mongolia Energy's Profit Performance

Summing up, Mongolia Energy received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Mongolia Energy's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Mongolia Energy at this point in time. Be aware that Mongolia Energy is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis and 3 of those don't sit too well with us...

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com