China Merchants Securities Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 6099 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

6099 (HK$13.56) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$9.4)

Is 6099 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6099 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6099 (HK$13.56) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$9.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6099 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6099?

Key metric: As 6099 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 6099. This is calculated by dividing 6099's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 6099's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	18.3x
Earnings	CN¥8.94b
Market Cap	CN¥155.99b

6099 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 6099's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 6099 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.2x
6066 CSC Financial	15.3x	38.6%	HK$197.5b
3908 China International Capital	15.7x	25.6%	HK$133.8b
1456 Guolian Securities	31.9x	44.8%	HK$32.6b
1375 Central China Securities	41.7x	n/a	HK$18.1b
6099 China Merchants Securities	18.3x	13.2%	HK$156.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 6099 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the peer average (26.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 6099's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Capital Markets Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
2799 China CITIC Financial Asset Management	4x	-29.2%	US$6.29b
8098 CL Group (Holdings)	3.7x	n/a	US$11.03m

No more companies available in this PE range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 6099 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Capital Markets industry average (24.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6099's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6099 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.3x
Fair PE Ratio	15.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 6099 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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