Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.

SZSC:1456 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$35.0b

Guolian Securities Valuation

Is 1456 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1456 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1456 (HK$4.45) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$1.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1456 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1456?

Key metric: As 1456 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1456. This is calculated by dividing 1456's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1456's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio34.8x
EarningsCN¥340.39m
Market CapCN¥32.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1456's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1456 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.6x
1375 Central China Securities
44.9xn/aHK$18.3b
6881 China Galaxy Securities
10.2x12.8%HK$143.6b
3908 China International Capital
16x25.6%HK$133.6b
1788 Guotai Junan International Holdings
39.3xn/aHK$10.7b
1456 Guolian Securities
34.8x48.3%HK$35.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1456 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.8x) compared to the peer average (27.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1456's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Capital Markets Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
8098 CL Group (Holdings)
3.9xn/aUS$11.61m
No more companies available in this PE range
1456 34.8xIndustry Avg. 18.7xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1456 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Capital Markets industry average (18.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1456's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1456 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio34.8x
Fair PE Ratio19.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1456 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1456 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$4.45
HK$5.00
+12.4%
20.0%HK$6.00HK$4.00n/a2
Dec ’25HK$4.37
HK$4.73
+8.2%
19.1%HK$6.00HK$4.00n/a3
Nov ’25HK$4.31
HK$5.73
+32.9%
40.4%HK$9.00HK$4.00n/a3
Oct ’25HK$4.25
HK$4.16
-2.1%
3.0%HK$4.30HK$4.00n/a3
Sep ’25HK$2.85
HK$4.16
+46.0%
3.0%HK$4.30HK$4.00n/a3
Aug ’25HK$2.94
HK$4.33
+47.2%
3.1%HK$4.50HK$4.18n/a3
Jul ’25HK$2.88
HK$4.33
+50.2%
3.1%HK$4.50HK$4.18n/a3
Jun ’25HK$3.37
HK$4.33
+28.4%
3.1%HK$4.50HK$4.18n/a3
May ’25HK$3.64
HK$4.24
+16.5%
1.4%HK$4.30HK$4.18n/a2
Apr ’25HK$3.29
HK$4.24
+28.9%
1.4%HK$4.30HK$4.18n/a2
Mar ’25HK$3.27
HK$4.82
+47.4%
10.8%HK$5.34HK$4.30n/a2
Feb ’25HK$2.99
HK$4.82
+61.2%
10.8%HK$5.34HK$4.30n/a2
Jan ’25HK$3.43
HK$4.82
+40.5%
10.8%HK$5.34HK$4.30n/a2
Dec ’24HK$3.64
HK$4.82
+32.4%
10.8%HK$5.34HK$4.30HK$4.372
Nov ’24HK$3.39
HK$4.82
+42.2%
10.8%HK$5.34HK$4.30HK$4.312
Oct ’24HK$3.58
HK$4.78
+33.6%
9.0%HK$5.30HK$4.25HK$4.253
Sep ’24HK$3.82
HK$4.78
+25.2%
9.0%HK$5.30HK$4.25HK$2.853
Aug ’24HK$3.72
HK$4.47
+20.3%
6.3%HK$4.87HK$4.25HK$2.943
Jul ’24HK$3.57
HK$4.47
+25.3%
6.3%HK$4.87HK$4.25HK$2.883
Jun ’24HK$3.66
HK$4.47
+22.2%
6.3%HK$4.87HK$4.25HK$3.373
May ’24HK$3.86
HK$4.47
+15.9%
6.3%HK$4.87HK$4.25HK$3.643
Apr ’24HK$3.93
HK$4.40
+12.0%
4.0%HK$4.65HK$4.25HK$3.293
Mar ’24HK$3.92
HK$4.11
+4.7%
4.8%HK$4.30HK$3.91HK$3.272
Feb ’24HK$4.36
HK$4.11
-5.8%
4.8%HK$4.30HK$3.91HK$2.992
Jan ’24HK$4.16
HK$4.11
-1.3%
4.8%HK$4.30HK$3.91HK$3.432
Dec ’23HK$4.22
HK$4.11
-2.7%
4.8%HK$4.30HK$3.91HK$3.642

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 12:17
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Guolian Securities Co., Ltd. is covered by 15 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Sau Shing ChowABCI Securities Company Limited
Wenbing LiBOCOM International Securities Limited
Jialiang ZhengBOCOM International Securities Limited