Orient Securities Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 3958 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3958 (HK$5.18) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$1.78)

Is 3958 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3958 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3958 (HK$5.18) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$1.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3958 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3958?

Key metric: As 3958 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3958. This is calculated by dividing 3958's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3958's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	31.2x
Earnings	CN¥2.96b
Market Cap	CN¥85.12b

3958 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3958's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3958 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19x
3908 China International Capital	16.2x	25.6%	HK$134.8b
6881 China Galaxy Securities	9.8x	9.8%	HK$143.9b
6066 CSC Financial	16.2x	38.6%	HK$200.2b
1456 Guolian Securities	33.8x	44.8%	HK$32.4b
3958 Orient Securities	31.2x	13.3%	HK$85.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3958 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x) compared to the peer average (19x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3958's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Capital Markets Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
2799 China CITIC Financial Asset Management	4.1x	-29.2%	US$6.49b
8098 CL Group (Holdings)	3.7x	n/a	US$11.03m

No more companies available in this PE range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3958 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Capital Markets industry average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3958's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3958 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	31.2x
Fair PE Ratio	12.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3958 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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