Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2411 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2411 (HK$1.2) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$0.94)

Is 2411 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2411 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2411 (HK$1.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$0.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2411 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2411?

Key metric: As 2411 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2411. This is calculated by dividing 2411's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2411's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.3x
Earnings	CN¥189.42m
Market Cap	CN¥1.75b

2411 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.3x
PEG Ratio	0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2411's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2411 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23x
2360 Best Mart 360 Holdings	7.4x	n/a	HK$1.7b
2517 Guoquan Food (Shanghai)	22.2x	n/a	HK$5.2b
831 Convenience Retail Asia	6.1x	n/a	HK$338.2m
1797 East Buy Holding	56.1x	15.1%	HK$15.0b
2411 Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)	9.3x	37.9%	HK$1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2411 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2411's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Retailing Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2411 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the Asian Consumer Retailing industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2411's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2411 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.3x
Fair PE Ratio	20.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2411 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2411 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$1.20	HK$2.35 +95.9%	6.4%	HK$2.50	HK$2.20	n/a	2
Nov ’25	HK$1.58	HK$2.35 +48.8%	6.4%	HK$2.50	HK$2.20	n/a	2
Oct ’25	HK$2.19	HK$2.35 +7.3%	6.4%	HK$2.50	HK$2.20	n/a	2
Sep ’25	HK$1.60	HK$2.35 +46.9%	6.4%	HK$2.50	HK$2.20	n/a	2
Aug ’25	HK$1.87	HK$3.97 +112.2%	11.3%	HK$4.50	HK$3.40	n/a	3
Jul ’25	HK$2.47	HK$3.97 +60.6%	11.3%	HK$4.50	HK$3.40	n/a	3
Jun ’25	HK$3.14	HK$3.97 +26.4%	11.3%	HK$4.50	HK$3.40	n/a	3
May ’25	HK$3.20	HK$3.97 +24.0%	11.3%	HK$4.50	HK$3.40	n/a	3
Apr ’25	HK$3.28	HK$6.34 +93.4%	22.5%	HK$7.68	HK$4.00	n/a	4
Mar ’25	HK$2.68	HK$7.12 +165.8%	6.4%	HK$7.72	HK$6.46	n/a	4
Feb ’25	HK$2.91	HK$7.21 +147.6%	6.6%	HK$7.77	HK$6.51	n/a	4
Jan ’25	HK$6.09	HK$7.30 +19.8%	3.4%	HK$7.59	HK$6.90	n/a	4
Dec ’24	HK$6.11	HK$7.30 +19.4%	3.4%	HK$7.59	HK$6.90	n/a	4
Nov ’24	HK$5.94	HK$7.30 +22.9%	3.4%	HK$7.59	HK$6.90	HK$1.58	4
Oct ’24	HK$5.56	HK$7.35 +32.2%	3.5%	HK$7.66	HK$6.96	HK$2.19	4
Sep ’24	HK$5.30	HK$7.35 +38.6%	3.5%	HK$7.66	HK$6.96	HK$1.60	4
Aug ’24	HK$5.11	HK$7.30 +42.8%	2.7%	HK$7.52	HK$7.00	HK$1.87	4
Jul ’24	HK$5.68	HK$7.29 +28.3%	2.7%	HK$7.51	HK$7.00	HK$2.47	4
Jun ’24	HK$5.65	HK$7.57 +33.9%	3.5%	HK$7.92	HK$7.28	HK$3.14	3
May ’24	HK$5.80	HK$7.57 +30.5%	3.5%	HK$7.92	HK$7.28	HK$3.20	3
Apr ’24	HK$6.31	HK$7.57 +19.9%	3.5%	HK$7.92	HK$7.28	HK$3.28	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.