Alibaba Health Information Technology Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 241 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

241 (HK$3.83) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$10.1)

Is 241 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 241 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 241 (HK$3.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$10.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 241 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 241?

Key metric: As 241 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 241. This is calculated by dividing 241's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 241's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	47.5x
Earnings	CN¥1.21b
Market Cap	CN¥57.01b

241 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	41.8x
PEG Ratio	2.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 241's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 241 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.4x
6618 JD Health International	32.8x	14.7%	HK$91.4b
RADL3 Raia Drogasil	39.8x	24.8%	R$44.1b
2517 Guoquan Food (Shanghai)	24.7x	n/a	HK$5.5b
3088 MatsukiyoCocokara	16.3x	5.5%	JP¥844.8b
241 Alibaba Health Information Technology	47.5x	21.9%	HK$61.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 241 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.5x) compared to the peer average (28.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 241's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Consumer Retailing Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 241 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.5x) compared to the Asian Consumer Retailing industry average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 241's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

241 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	47.5x
Fair PE Ratio	24.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 241 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 241 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$3.83	HK$4.97 +29.9%	27.5%	HK$9.22	HK$3.25	n/a	17
Nov ’25	HK$3.89	HK$4.94 +27.0%	28.3%	HK$9.35	HK$3.29	n/a	17
Oct ’25	HK$5.35	HK$4.93 -7.8%	29.4%	HK$9.50	HK$3.34	n/a	16
Sep ’25	HK$3.01	HK$4.96 +64.7%	29.9%	HK$9.63	HK$3.30	n/a	16
Aug ’25	HK$3.26	HK$4.99 +52.9%	29.0%	HK$9.48	HK$3.59	n/a	15
Jul ’25	HK$3.13	HK$5.25 +67.9%	28.9%	HK$9.47	HK$3.59	n/a	19
Jun ’25	HK$3.28	HK$5.35 +63.2%	28.3%	HK$9.52	HK$3.61	n/a	19
May ’25	HK$2.96	HK$5.48 +85.3%	27.6%	HK$9.60	HK$3.99	n/a	19
Apr ’25	HK$3.18	HK$5.97 +87.9%	21.6%	HK$9.62	HK$4.00	n/a	20
Mar ’25	HK$3.46	HK$6.21 +79.6%	18.0%	HK$9.67	HK$4.68	n/a	20
Feb ’25	HK$2.93	HK$6.23 +112.5%	17.7%	HK$9.73	HK$4.71	n/a	21
Jan ’25	HK$4.24	HK$6.23 +46.9%	17.7%	HK$9.73	HK$4.71	n/a	21
Dec ’24	HK$4.37	HK$6.61 +51.2%	30.3%	HK$14.28	HK$4.70	n/a	22
Nov ’24	HK$4.61	HK$6.53 +41.6%	30.8%	HK$13.95	HK$4.59	HK$3.89	20
Oct ’24	HK$4.88	HK$6.77 +38.7%	29.7%	HK$13.99	HK$4.60	HK$5.35	21
Sep ’24	HK$4.63	HK$6.40 +38.2%	18.6%	HK$9.23	HK$4.61	HK$3.01	20
Aug ’24	HK$5.58	HK$6.69 +19.9%	18.5%	HK$9.36	HK$4.64	HK$3.26	22
Jul ’24	HK$4.71	HK$6.69 +42.0%	18.3%	HK$9.27	HK$4.60	HK$3.13	21
Jun ’24	HK$4.63	HK$7.25 +56.7%	28.3%	HK$14.00	HK$4.58	HK$3.28	19
May ’24	HK$5.61	HK$8.02 +43.0%	30.1%	HK$14.40	HK$5.16	HK$2.96	19
Apr ’24	HK$5.68	HK$8.05 +41.8%	31.0%	HK$14.52	HK$5.20	HK$3.18	19
Mar ’24	HK$6.05	HK$8.02 +32.6%	32.9%	HK$14.53	HK$4.17	HK$3.46	19
Feb ’24	HK$7.05	HK$8.29 +17.5%	32.1%	HK$14.69	HK$4.22	HK$2.93	18
Jan ’24	HK$6.65	HK$7.66 +15.2%	33.7%	HK$14.17	HK$4.07	HK$4.24	20
Dec ’23	HK$6.61	HK$7.04 +6.5%	35.9%	HK$14.04	HK$3.91	HK$4.37	19
Nov ’23	HK$3.64	HK$5.66 +55.4%	29.2%	HK$9.83	HK$3.84	HK$4.61	18

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.