Xtep International Holdings Valuation

Is 1368 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1368 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1368 (HK$5.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$9.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1368 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1368?

Key metric: As 1368 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1368. This is calculated by dividing 1368's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1368's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	10.9x
Earnings	CN¥1.12b
Market Cap	CN¥12.17b

1368 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.5x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1368's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1368 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.7x
1836 Stella International Holdings	8.4x	6.7%	HK$11.2b
551 Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings)	7.4x	4.0%	HK$26.6b
210 Daphne International Holdings	5.1x	n/a	HK$486.7m
1028 C.banner International Holdings	14x	n/a	HK$471.5m
1368 Xtep International Holdings	10.9x	13.4%	HK$13.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1368 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1368's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Luxury Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
8211 Zhejiang Yongan Rongtong Holdings	1x	n/a	US$5.46m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1368 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the Hong Kong Luxury industry average (8.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1368's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1368 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.9x
Fair PE Ratio	9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1368 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1368 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$5.08	HK$6.64 +30.6%	11.1%	HK$8.19	HK$4.53	n/a	24
Nov ’25	HK$5.81	HK$6.64 +14.2%	11.1%	HK$8.19	HK$4.53	n/a	24
Oct ’25	HK$6.04	HK$6.31 +4.5%	11.2%	HK$7.32	HK$4.60	n/a	23
Sep ’25	HK$5.19	HK$6.26 +20.6%	11.3%	HK$7.33	HK$4.55	n/a	23
Aug ’25	HK$4.59	HK$6.20 +35.1%	12.1%	HK$7.41	HK$4.48	n/a	23
Jul ’25	HK$4.81	HK$6.21 +29.1%	12.5%	HK$7.60	HK$4.47	n/a	23
Jun ’25	HK$5.42	HK$6.24 +15.1%	12.2%	HK$7.62	HK$4.49	n/a	24
May ’25	HK$4.99	HK$5.95 +19.1%	13.4%	HK$7.36	HK$4.10	n/a	24
Apr ’25	HK$4.85	HK$5.91 +21.8%	15.4%	HK$7.38	HK$4.08	n/a	24
Mar ’25	HK$4.40	HK$6.48 +47.2%	28.1%	HK$12.09	HK$4.09	n/a	22
Feb ’25	HK$3.81	HK$6.72 +76.3%	30.4%	HK$12.11	HK$4.09	n/a	22
Jan ’25	HK$4.41	HK$7.89 +78.9%	23.5%	HK$12.19	HK$5.01	n/a	23
Dec ’24	HK$4.47	HK$8.39 +87.6%	18.9%	HK$12.13	HK$5.40	n/a	23
Nov ’24	HK$7.01	HK$10.45 +49.1%	11.3%	HK$12.65	HK$7.00	HK$5.81	23
Oct ’24	HK$7.26	HK$10.60 +46.0%	10.4%	HK$12.69	HK$7.51	HK$6.04	23
Sep ’24	HK$7.77	HK$10.64 +37.0%	10.4%	HK$12.75	HK$7.54	HK$5.19	23
Aug ’24	HK$8.56	HK$10.82 +26.4%	7.6%	HK$12.85	HK$9.24	HK$4.59	23
Jul ’24	HK$7.98	HK$11.49 +44.0%	6.8%	HK$12.94	HK$9.59	HK$4.81	22
Jun ’24	HK$7.65	HK$11.85 +55.0%	5.8%	HK$13.24	HK$9.81	HK$5.42	21
May ’24	HK$9.10	HK$12.07 +32.7%	5.9%	HK$13.50	HK$10.01	HK$4.99	21
Apr ’24	HK$9.98	HK$11.59 +16.1%	6.6%	HK$12.93	HK$10.02	HK$4.85	20
Mar ’24	HK$9.30	HK$11.68 +25.6%	10.1%	HK$13.79	HK$9.36	HK$4.40	23
Feb ’24	HK$10.40	HK$12.25 +17.8%	12.8%	HK$16.19	HK$9.62	HK$3.81	25
Jan ’24	HK$8.69	HK$11.66 +34.1%	21.1%	HK$15.68	HK$4.16	HK$4.41	24
Dec ’23	HK$9.02	HK$11.59 +28.5%	21.4%	HK$15.22	HK$4.07	HK$4.47	23
Nov ’23	HK$7.61	HK$11.87 +56.0%	21.5%	HK$15.05	HK$4.02	HK$7.01	22

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.