Matrix Holdings Limited's (HKG:1005) 127% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Matrix Holdings Limited (HKG:1005) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 127% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 54% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Leisure industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may consider Matrix Holdings as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.3x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Matrix Holdings

How Has Matrix Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Matrix Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Matrix Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Matrix Holdings?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Matrix Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 28%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 21% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 12% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Matrix Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

The large bounce in Matrix Holdings' shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Matrix Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Matrix Holdings you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.