Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 12
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 209% to HK$1.47. The fair value is estimated to be HK$1.91, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 41%. New Risk • May 29
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 20% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (40% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 24% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.2% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (20% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (HK$439.3m market cap, or US$56.1m). Announcement • May 28
REF Holdings Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of HKD 23.3984 million. REF Holdings Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of HKD 23.3984 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 51,200,000
Price\Range: HKD 0.457
Discount Per Security: HKD 0.00914
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing New Risk • May 13
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Hong Kong stocks, typically moving 40% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (40% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 24% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.2% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (HK$337.9m market cap, or US$43.2m). Announcement • May 13
REF Holdings Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of HKD 23.3984 million. REF Holdings Limited has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of HKD 23.3984 million.
Security Name: Ordinary Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 51,200,000
Price\Range: HKD 0.457
Discount Per Security: HKD 0.00914
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing New Risk • Mar 06
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 3.2% Last year net profit margin: 5.3% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 24% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.9% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.2% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (HK$130.6m market cap, or US$16.7m). Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.012 (vs HK$0.022 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: HK$0.012 (down from HK$0.022 in FY 2024). Revenue: HK$92.3m (down 13% from FY 2024). Net income: HK$2.98m (down 48% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 5.3% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 06
REF Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 06, 2026 REF Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 06, 2026. Announcement • Feb 21
REF Holdings Limited Provides Unaudited Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ended 31 December 2025 REF Holdings Limited provided unaudited consolidated earnings guidance for the year ended 31 December 2025. For the period, the profit attributable to owners of the Company for the Current Year is expected to record a decrease of approximately 40% to 50% as compared to that of approximately HKD 5.7 million for the corresponding period last year. The expected decrease in profit is primarily a result of the decrease in revenue. Announcement • Feb 20
REF Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Mar 05, 2026 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Mar 05, 2026 New Risk • Dec 24
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Hong Kong stocks, typically moving 9.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 25% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.6% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (HK$117.8m market cap, or US$15.1m). Reported Earnings • Aug 24
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.017 (vs HK$0.021 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: HK$0.017 (down from HK$0.021 in 1H 2024). Revenue: HK$53.3m (down 16% from 1H 2024). Net income: HK$4.48m (down 16% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 8.4% (in line with 1H 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Aug 12
REF Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 22, 2025 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 22, 2025 Announcement • Jul 03
REF Holdings Limited Appoints Fan Jia Yin as Member of Nomination Committee, Effect from 30 June 2025 REF Holdings Limited announced that Ms. Fan Jia Yin, an executive Director, has been appointed as a member of the nomination committee of the Company with effect from June 30, 2025. Other positions of Ms. Fan at the Board remain unchanged. Following this change, the nomination committee of the Company comprises three independent non-executive Directors, namely Mr. Lee Hon Man Eric, Mr. Leung Chi Hung, and Mr. Wong Kun Kau, along with an executive Director, Ms. Fan. New Risk • Apr 22
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Hong Kong stocks, typically moving 53% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (53% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 29% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (5.3% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (HK$143.4m market cap, or US$18.5m). Board Change • Apr 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 3 highly experienced directors. CEO & Executive Director Jia Yin Fan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Mar 07
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.022 (vs HK$0.046 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: HK$0.022 (down from HK$0.046 in FY 2023). Revenue: HK$106.4m (down 14% from FY 2023). Net income: HK$5.67m (down 52% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 5.3% (down from 9.4% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 35% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Mar 07
REF Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 02, 2025 REF Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 02, 2025. Announcement • Feb 21
REF Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 06, 2025 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Mar 06, 2025 New Risk • Jan 10
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Hong Kong stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 31% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (HK$47.1m market cap, or US$6.05m). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Announcement • Aug 09
REF Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 20, 2024 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 20, 2024 New Risk • Jul 25
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Hong Kong stocks, typically moving 10.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 31% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (HK$44.3m market cap, or US$5.67m). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (10.0% average weekly change). New Risk • Jun 13
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: HK$75.5m (US$9.67m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 31% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (HK$75.5m market cap, or US$9.67m). Announcement • Mar 07
REF Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 17, 2024 REF Holdings Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 17, 2024. Reported Earnings • Mar 07
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.046 (vs HK$0.044 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: HK$0.046 (up from HK$0.044 in FY 2022). Revenue: HK$124.0m (down 4.4% from FY 2022). Net income: HK$11.7m (up 4.9% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 9.4% (up from 8.6% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 19% per year. Announcement • Feb 24
REF Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 06, 2024 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 06, 2024 Announcement • Jan 10
REF Holdings Limited SHS to Be Deleted from OTC Equity REF Holdings Limited SHS (Cayman Islands) will be deleted from OTC Equity effective January 09, 2024, due to Inactive Security. Buying Opportunity • Dec 12
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 9.4%. The fair value is estimated to be HK$0.36, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 8.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 30%. New Risk • Oct 18
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: HK$76.8m (US$9.81m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 335% Cash payout ratio: 103% Earnings have declined by 36% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (HK$76.8m market cap, or US$9.81m). Reported Earnings • Sep 02
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.039 (vs HK$0.038 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: HK$0.039 (up from HK$0.038 in 1H 2022). Revenue: HK$75.6m (up 4.9% from 1H 2022). Net income: HK$10.1m (up 2.9% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 13% (in line with 1H 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 23% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 20
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.039 (vs HK$0.038 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: HK$0.039 (up from HK$0.038 in 1H 2022). Revenue: HK$75.6m (up 4.9% from 1H 2022). Net income: HK$10.1m (up 2.9% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 13% (in line with 1H 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 13% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Aug 16
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: HK$78.1m (US$9.98m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 344% Cash payout ratio: 184% Earnings have declined by 38% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (HK$78.1m market cap, or US$9.98m). Announcement • Aug 09
REF Holdings Limited to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 18, 2023 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 18, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Apr 18
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 4.7%. The fair value is estimated to be HK$0.53, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 14% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 44%. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 11
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.15 per share at 30% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 18 April 2023. Payment date: 12 May 2023. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 30%. Within top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.5%). Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.044 (vs HK$0.034 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: HK$0.044 (up from HK$0.034 in FY 2021). Revenue: HK$129.7m (down 4.0% from FY 2021). Net income: HK$11.2m (up 29% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 8.6% (up from 6.4% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 44% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 18
REF Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Mar 01, 2023 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Mar 01, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 20
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.038 (vs HK$0.03 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: HK$0.038 (up from HK$0.03 in 1H 2021). Revenue: HK$72.1m (down 6.7% from 1H 2021). Net income: HK$9.80m (up 26% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 14% (up from 10% in 1H 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 27
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 03 May 2022. Payment date: 13 May 2022. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 25%. Within top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.5%). Reported Earnings • Mar 07
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: HK$0.034 (down from HK$0.071 in FY 2020). Revenue: HK$135.1m (down 8.4% from FY 2020). Net income: HK$8.63m (down 53% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 6.4% (down from 12% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 41% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 06
REF Holdings Limited Announces Final Dividend Payable on 13 May 2022 REF Holdings Limited announced a final dividend of HKD 0.2 per share for the year ended 31 December 2021. Ex-dividend date: 03 May 2022. Record date: 11 May 2022. Payment date: 13 May 2022. Announcement • Feb 24
REF Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2021 Results on Mar 04, 2022 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2021 results on Mar 04, 2022 Announcement • Feb 22
REF Holdings Limited Provides Unaudited Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ended 31 December 2021 REF Holdings Limited provided unaudited consolidated earnings guidance for the year ended 31 December 2021. For the year, the company expected to record a decline in revenue for the Current Year of approximately 5% to 10% as compared with that for the year ended 31 December 2020 (Prior Year'). The net profit after tax for the Current Year is expected to record a decrease of approximately 50% to 60% as compared with the net profit after tax of approximately HKD 18.3 million record for the Prior Year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 21
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.30 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 April 2021. Payment date: 06 May 2021. Trailing yield: 67%. Within top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (6.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Announcement • Mar 12
REF Holdings Limited Recommends Final Dividend for the Year 2020, Payable on or Before 6 May 2021 On 11 March 2021, the Board of REF Holdings Limited recommended the payment of a final dividend of 30 HKD cents per share (2019: Nil), amounting to HKD 76,800,000 (2019: Nil). The proposed final dividend will be submitted for consideration at the Annual General Meeting to be held on 23 April 2021. Coupled with the interim dividend, the total dividend for the Year would amount to 50 HKD cents per share (2019: Nil). For the purpose of ascertaining the Shareholders' entitlement to the proposed final dividend, the register of members will be closed from 30 April 2021 to 4 May 2021, both days inclusive. The proposed final dividend will be payable to the shareholders of the Company whose names appear on the register of members of the Company as at 4 May 2021. In order to qualify for the proposed final dividend payable on or before 6 May 2021. Reported Earnings • Mar 12
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS HK$0.071 (vs HK$0.13 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: HK$147.5m (down 23% from FY 2019). Net income: HK$18.3m (down 46% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 12% (down from 18% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 37% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 20% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 27
REF Holdings Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Mar 11, 2021 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2020 results on Mar 11, 2021 Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 26
New 90-day high: HK$0.56 The company is up 14% from its price of HK$0.49 on 27 November 2020. The Hong Kong market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 23% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 09
New 90-day high: HK$0.50 The company is up 8.0% from its price of HK$0.47 on 10 September 2020. The Hong Kong market is also up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company’s price trend is similar to the market over that time. However, it outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is down 7.0% over the same period. Announcement • Aug 11
REF Holdings Limited to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Aug 21, 2020 REF Holdings Limited announced that they will report first half, 2020 results on Aug 21, 2020