China Railway Group Valuation
Is 390 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 390 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 390 (HK$3.67) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$2.28)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 390 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 390?
Key metric: As 390 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 390's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 5.6x |
| Earnings | CN¥28.34b |
| Market Cap | CN¥145.35b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 10.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 390's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 4.8x | ||
1800 China Communications Construction | 3.4x | 10.0% | HK$154.3b |
3996 China Energy Engineering | 4.4x | n/a | HK$89.7b |
1618 Metallurgical Corporation of China | 5.5x | 15.5% | HK$67.8b |
3311 China State Construction International Holdings | 5.7x | 12.3% | HK$56.0b |
390 China Railway Group | 5.6x | 11.9% | HK$145.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 390 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the peer average (4.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 390's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Construction Industry?
| 4 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
385 Chinney Alliance Group | 2x | n/a | US$27.14m |
8188 GME Group Holdings | 1.5x | n/a | US$22.05m |
1591 Shun Wo Group Holdings | 1.8x | n/a | US$9.25m |
8373 Indigo Star Holdings | 1.5x | n/a | US$3.24m |
| 4 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 390 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Construction industry average (9.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 390's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 5.6x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 9.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 390 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.
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