Greentown Management Holdings' (HKG:9979) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations

Following the solid earnings report from Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited (HKG:9979), the market responded by bidding up the stock price. While the profit numbers were good, our analysis has found some concerning factors that shareholders should be aware of.

Check out our latest analysis for Greentown Management Holdings

Examining Cashflow Against Greentown Management Holdings' Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to June 2024, Greentown Management Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of 0.46. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥415m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥1.00b. Greentown Management Holdings' free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits. The good news for shareholders is that Greentown Management Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Greentown Management Holdings' Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Greentown Management Holdings' earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. For this reason, we think that Greentown Management Holdings' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Greentown Management Holdings (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be familiar with.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Greentown Management Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.