A Look At The Fair Value Of Dafeng Port Heshun Technology Company Limited (HKG:8310)

Key Insights

• Dafeng Port Heshun Technology's estimated fair value is HK$0.07 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of HK$0.08 suggests Dafeng Port Heshun Technology is trading close to its fair value
• Industry average of 532% suggests Dafeng Port Heshun Technology's peers are currently trading at a higher premium

How far off is Dafeng Port Heshun Technology Company Limited (HKG:8310) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Dafeng Port Heshun Technology

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)	HK$9.45m	HK$10.7m	HK$11.8m	HK$12.6m	HK$13.4m	HK$14.0m	HK$14.5m	HK$14.9m	HK$15.3m	HK$15.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 18.47%	Est @ 13.42%	Est @ 9.88%	Est @ 7.40%	Est @ 5.67%	Est @ 4.45%	Est @ 3.60%	Est @ 3.01%	Est @ 2.59%	Est @ 2.30%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 15%	HK$8.2	HK$8.1	HK$7.7	HK$7.1	HK$6.6	HK$5.9	HK$5.3	HK$4.8	HK$4.2	HK$3.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$62m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$16m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (15%– 1.6%) = HK$116m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= HK$116m÷ ( 1 + 15%)¹⁰= HK$28m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$90m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.08, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dafeng Port Heshun Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Dafeng Port Heshun Technology

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Dafeng Port Heshun Technology, we've put together three essential aspects you should assess:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Dafeng Port Heshun Technology has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.