Vicon Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 3878 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3878 (HK$0.23) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$1.48)

Is 3878 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3878 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3878 (HK$0.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$1.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3878 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3878?

Key metric: As 3878 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3878. This is calculated by dividing 3878's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3878's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.3x
Earnings	HK$8.27m
Market Cap	HK$110.31m

3878 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3878's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3878 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.5x
1552 BHCC Holding	6.6x	n/a	HK$112.0m
1647 Grandshores Technology Group	8.9x	n/a	HK$125.5m
1742 HPC Holdings	8.4x	n/a	HK$92.8m
1420 Chuan Holdings	6.1x	n/a	HK$136.5m
3878 Vicon Holdings	13.3x	n/a	HK$110.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3878 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (7.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3878's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Construction Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
385 Chinney Alliance Group	1.9x	n/a	US$26.76m
8188 GME Group Holdings	1.5x	n/a	US$21.12m
1591 Shun Wo Group Holdings	1.8x	n/a	US$9.25m
8373 Indigo Star Holdings	1.5x	n/a	US$3.29m

No more companies available in this PE range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3878 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Construction industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3878's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3878 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.3x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 3878's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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