Improved Earnings Required Before Baoye Group Company Limited (HKG:2355) Stock's 26% Jump Looks Justified

The Baoye Group Company Limited (HKG:2355) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 28%.

Although its price has surged higher, Baoye Group may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.6x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 11x and even P/E's higher than 22x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Baoye Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Baoye Group

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Baoye Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Baoye Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 52%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 27% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we are not surprised that Baoye Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Baoye Group's P/E

Even after such a strong price move, Baoye Group's P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Baoye Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Baoye Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If you're unsure about the strength of Baoye Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.