FDB Holdings Limited's (HKG:1826) 29% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

To the annoyance of some shareholders, FDB Holdings Limited (HKG:1826) shares are down a considerable 29% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Indeed, the recent drop has reduced its annual gain to a relatively sedate 4.1% over the last twelve months.

Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about FDB Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Construction industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Check out our latest analysis for FDB Holdings

How FDB Holdings Has Been Performing

FDB Holdings has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this respectable revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on FDB Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on FDB Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, FDB Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 12% last year. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 18% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that FDB Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

FDB Holdings' plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of FDB Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for FDB Holdings (3 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.