Guangzhou Automobile Group Valuation
Is 2238 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 2238 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 2238 (HK$3.18) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$1.99)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 2238 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2238?
Key metric: As 2238 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 2238's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 0.3x |
| Sales | CN¥106.27b |
| Market Cap | CN¥72.33b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.7x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -10.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 25.5x |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does 2238's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.8x | ||
175 Geely Automobile Holdings | 0.5x | 13.5% | HK$129.3b |
2333 Great Wall Motor | 0.5x | 11.5% | HK$201.9b |
9863 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology | 1.8x | 36.0% | HK$38.5b |
489 Dongfeng Motor Group | 0.3x | 2.1% | HK$30.5b |
2238 Guangzhou Automobile Group | 0.3x | 9.2% | HK$77.7b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 2238 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does 2238's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?
| 8 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 2238 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (1x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 2238's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.3x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 0.5x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 2238 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$3.18 | HK$3.15 -0.9% | 60.3% | HK$9.78 | HK$0.99 | n/a | 17 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$2.78 | HK$3.52 +26.4% | 64.7% | HK$9.93 | HK$1.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$3.05 | HK$3.63 +18.9% | 60.2% | HK$9.97 | HK$1.80 | n/a | 17 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$2.49 | HK$4.23 +69.9% | 49.1% | HK$10.00 | HK$2.04 | n/a | 17 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$2.85 | HK$4.56 +59.8% | 43.0% | HK$9.84 | HK$2.01 | n/a | 17 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$2.76 | HK$4.59 +66.5% | 39.2% | HK$9.78 | HK$2.99 | n/a | 18 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$3.25 | HK$4.69 +44.3% | 39.0% | HK$9.81 | HK$2.99 | n/a | 17 |
| May ’25 | HK$3.25 | HK$4.74 +45.8% | 38.1% | HK$9.82 | HK$3.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$3.21 | HK$5.25 +63.4% | 34.7% | HK$9.84 | HK$3.00 | n/a | 19 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$3.43 | HK$5.44 +58.6% | 32.7% | HK$9.88 | HK$3.16 | n/a | 18 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$3.10 | HK$5.26 +69.6% | 28.3% | HK$9.21 | HK$3.18 | n/a | 17 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$3.63 | HK$5.49 +51.2% | 25.0% | HK$9.18 | HK$3.20 | n/a | 17 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$3.59 | HK$5.49 +52.9% | 24.9% | HK$9.17 | HK$3.20 | n/a | 17 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$3.67 | HK$5.61 +52.7% | 26.5% | HK$9.00 | HK$3.20 | HK$2.78 | 17 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$3.87 | HK$6.49 +67.8% | 29.0% | HK$11.66 | HK$3.18 | HK$3.05 | 19 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$4.13 | HK$6.63 +60.5% | 25.8% | HK$11.39 | HK$3.21 | HK$2.49 | 20 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$4.78 | HK$7.08 +48.1% | 24.1% | HK$11.46 | HK$3.83 | HK$2.85 | 20 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$4.67 | HK$7.39 +58.3% | 23.1% | HK$11.60 | HK$3.88 | HK$2.76 | 20 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$4.54 | HK$7.42 +63.4% | 23.2% | HK$11.66 | HK$3.90 | HK$3.25 | 20 |
| May ’24 | HK$4.87 | HK$7.72 +58.5% | 25.3% | HK$12.79 | HK$3.98 | HK$3.25 | 19 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$4.95 | HK$7.98 +61.1% | 24.7% | HK$13.01 | HK$4.00 | HK$3.21 | 18 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$5.24 | HK$8.71 +66.2% | 25.0% | HK$12.84 | HK$4.50 | HK$3.43 | 18 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$5.95 | HK$9.11 +53.1% | 24.0% | HK$13.21 | HK$5.11 | HK$3.10 | 19 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$5.26 | HK$9.01 +71.2% | 22.7% | HK$12.88 | HK$4.98 | HK$3.63 | 19 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$5.63 | HK$8.82 +56.7% | 22.4% | HK$12.19 | HK$4.80 | HK$3.59 | 19 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$4.91 | HK$8.80 +79.3% | 21.3% | HK$12.06 | HK$4.75 | HK$3.67 | 20 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
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