BAIC Motor Corporation Limited

SHSC:1958 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$17.7b

BAIC Motor Valuation

Is 1958 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1958 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1958 (HK$2.21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$17.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1958 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1958?

Key metric: As 1958 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1958. This is calculated by dividing 1958's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1958's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.8x
EarningsCN¥2.11b
Market CapCN¥16.45b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1958's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1958 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.6x
1114 Brilliance China Automotive Holdings
2.4x1.6%HK$14.2b
175 Geely Automobile Holdings
8x-6.4%HK$132.7b
2333 Great Wall Motor
8.6x7.1%HK$222.4b
1585 Yadea Group Holdings
15.6x16.0%HK$41.7b
1958 BAIC Motor
7.8x8.7%HK$17.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1958 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the peer average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1958's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1958 7.8xIndustry Avg. 17.6xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1958 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1958's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1958 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.8x
Fair PE Ratio8.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1958 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1958 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$2.21
HK$2.03
-8.2%
15.6%HK$2.47HK$1.41n/a8
Nov ’25HK$2.11
HK$2.06
-2.6%
15.7%HK$2.50HK$1.42n/a8
Oct ’25HK$2.25
HK$2.08
-7.6%
15.6%HK$2.52HK$1.44n/a8
Sep ’25HK$1.85
HK$2.07
+11.7%
15.8%HK$2.50HK$1.42n/a8
Aug ’25HK$2.12
HK$2.18
+2.8%
18.8%HK$2.80HK$1.40n/a8
Jul ’25HK$2.00
HK$2.18
+8.9%
18.6%HK$2.78HK$1.40n/a8
Jun ’25HK$2.22
HK$2.20
-1.1%
18.1%HK$2.78HK$1.40n/a8
May ’25HK$2.24
HK$2.20
-2.0%
18.1%HK$2.79HK$1.41n/a8
Apr ’25HK$2.14
HK$2.34
+9.1%
22.1%HK$3.38HK$1.41n/a9
Mar ’25HK$2.39
HK$2.23
-6.8%
24.3%HK$3.39HK$1.41n/a8
Feb ’25HK$2.07
HK$2.19
+5.7%
24.9%HK$3.41HK$1.42n/a8
Jan ’25HK$2.28
HK$2.20
-3.6%
25.4%HK$3.43HK$1.43n/a8
Dec ’24HK$2.35
HK$2.22
-5.5%
23.5%HK$3.40HK$1.42n/a9
Nov ’24HK$2.18
HK$2.12
-2.5%
28.2%HK$3.32HK$0.93HK$2.119
Oct ’24HK$2.37
HK$2.12
-10.7%
27.0%HK$3.32HK$0.93HK$2.2510
Sep ’24n/a
HK$2.10
0%
25.7%HK$3.36HK$0.94HK$1.8511
Aug ’24n/a
HK$2.12
0%
27.3%HK$3.39HK$0.95HK$2.1210
Jul ’24n/a
HK$2.16
0%
25.5%HK$3.27HK$0.95HK$2.0011
Jun ’24n/a
HK$2.17
0%
25.4%HK$3.31HK$0.96HK$2.2211
May ’24n/a
HK$2.19
0%
26.6%HK$3.39HK$0.99HK$2.2410
Apr ’24n/a
HK$2.20
0%
26.5%HK$3.41HK$0.99HK$2.1410
Mar ’24n/a
HK$2.24
0%
36.9%HK$4.23HK$0.98HK$2.399
Feb ’24n/a
HK$2.24
0%
36.3%HK$4.34HK$1.01HK$2.0710
Jan ’24n/a
HK$2.32
0%
30.7%HK$4.19HK$1.78HK$2.289
Dec ’23n/a
HK$2.27
0%
29.0%HK$4.10HK$1.72HK$2.3510
Nov ’23n/a
HK$2.23
0%
26.1%HK$3.81HK$1.71HK$2.1810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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