Shareholders might have noticed that Intron Technology Holdings Limited (HKG:1760) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to HK$4.26 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 8.5% to hit CN¥0.091 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Intron Technology Holdings' three analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.45b in 2021, which would reflect a sizeable 23% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 58% to CN¥0.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥2.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.14 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The consensus price target rose 35% to CN¥3.08despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Intron Technology Holdings' earnings by assigning a price premium.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Intron Technology Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Intron Technology Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Intron Technology Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Intron Technology Holdings going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Intron Technology Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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