Alpha Services and Holdings S.A.

ATSE:ALPHA Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.6b

Alpha Services and Holdings Valuation

Is ALPHA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALPHA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALPHA (€1.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALPHA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALPHA?

Key metric: As ALPHA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALPHA. This is calculated by dividing ALPHA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALPHA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.5x
Earnings€483.31m
Market Cap€3.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALPHA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALPHA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.3x
TPEIR Piraeus Financial Holdings
4.1x-1.6%€4.5b
ETE National Bank of Greece
4.9x-6.7%€6.4b
OPTIMA Optima bank
6.8x13.4%€929.5m
EUROB Eurobank Ergasias Services and Holdings
5.3x-3.9%€7.3b
ALPHA Alpha Services and Holdings
7.5x19.0%€3.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALPHA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the peer average (5.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALPHA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ALPHA 7.5xIndustry Avg. 7.3xNo. of Companies45PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALPHA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALPHA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALPHA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.5x
Fair PE Ratio6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALPHA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALPHA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.56
€2.37
+51.4%
11.8%€3.00€1.90n/a15
Nov ’25€1.40
€2.34
+67.1%
12.3%€3.00€1.79n/a15
Oct ’25€1.54
€2.36
+53.3%
11.7%€3.00€1.79n/a15
Sep ’25€1.55
€2.36
+52.6%
11.8%€3.00€1.80n/a15
Aug ’25€1.69
€2.35
+39.3%
12.3%€3.00€1.80n/a14
Jul ’25€1.59
€2.19
+37.4%
16.2%€2.60€1.21n/a14
Jun ’25€1.55
€2.19
+41.0%
16.2%€2.60€1.21n/a14
May ’25€1.59
€2.15
+34.9%
15.8%€2.55€1.21n/a13
Apr ’25€1.63
€2.12
+29.9%
16.5%€2.55€1.21n/a12
Mar ’25€1.72
€2.06
+19.5%
15.0%€2.40€1.21n/a11
Feb ’25€1.70
€2.05
+20.5%
14.9%€2.40€1.21n/a11
Jan ’25€1.54
€1.96
+27.0%
20.1%€2.50€1.10n/a12
Dec ’24€1.56
€1.90
+22.4%
19.0%€2.30€1.10n/a13
Nov ’24€1.40
€1.88
+34.2%
18.7%€2.30€1.10€1.4013
Oct ’24€1.26
€1.89
+50.1%
18.3%€2.30€1.10€1.5414
Sep ’24€1.51
€1.86
+23.5%
17.9%€2.30€1.10€1.5514
Aug ’24€1.60
€1.85
+15.5%
17.9%€2.30€1.10€1.6914
Jul ’24€1.50
€1.75
+16.6%
17.5%€2.20€1.10€1.5913
Jun ’24€1.37
€1.55
+12.6%
14.4%€2.00€1.10€1.5514
May ’24€1.14
€1.54
+36.1%
13.0%€1.80€1.10€1.5913
Apr ’24€1.13
€1.53
+35.8%
13.2%€1.80€1.10€1.6313
Mar ’24€1.47
€1.56
+6.4%
10.6%€1.80€1.21€1.7212
Feb ’24€1.28
€1.49
+16.2%
12.3%€1.70€1.09€1.7012
Jan ’24€1.00
€1.44
+44.0%
13.2%€1.70€1.09€1.5412
Dec ’23€1.05
€1.43
+36.3%
13.4%€1.70€1.09€1.5612
Nov ’23€0.92
€1.38
+49.5%
14.6%€1.70€1.07€1.4011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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