National Grid plc Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

National Grid plc (LON:NG.) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at UK£18b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 12%, coming in at just UK£0.61 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, National Grid's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£19.6b in 2026. This would be a credible 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 20% to UK£0.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£19.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.71 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for National Grid

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£11.44, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic National Grid analyst has a price target of UK£12.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£9.70. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting National Grid is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that National Grid's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that National Grid is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for National Grid. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on National Grid. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple National Grid analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with National Grid (including 2 which shouldn't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.