Should You Investigate Shearwater Group plc (LON:SWG) At UK£1.37?

Shearwater Group plc (LON:SWG), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the AIM. As a small cap stock, which tends to lack high analyst coverage, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Shearwater Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Shearwater Group

What is Shearwater Group worth?

According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 69.9x is currently well-above the industry average of 42.51x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. Furthermore, Shearwater Group’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach levels around its industry peers, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.

Can we expect growth from Shearwater Group?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected next year, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Shearwater Group, at least in the near future.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? If you believe SWG should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. Given the risk from a negative growth outlook, this could be the right time to reduce your total portfolio risk. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on SWG for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its industry peers, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Shearwater Group at this point in time. For example - Shearwater Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Shearwater Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.