Did NEXT's (LON:NXT) Share Price Deserve to Gain 64%?

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the NEXT plc (LON:NXT) share price is up 64% in the last year, clearly besting the market return of around 19% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! It is also impressive that the stock is up 34% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.

Check out our latest analysis for NEXT

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year, NEXT actually saw its earnings per share drop 52%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

NEXT's revenue actually dropped 17% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NEXT is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that NEXT shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 64% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with NEXT , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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