Earnings Beat: Moonpig Group PLC Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Shareholders of Moonpig Group PLC (LON:MOON) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 10% to UK£1.44 following its latest yearly results. Revenues were UK£320m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at UK£0.077, an impressive 26% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Moonpig Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Moonpig Group's eleven analysts is for revenues of UK£344.8m in 2024. This reflects a modest 7.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 27% to UK£0.099. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£344.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.10 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.5% to UK£2.17, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Moonpig Group at UK£3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£1.20. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Moonpig Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Moonpig Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Moonpig Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Moonpig Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Moonpig Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.