Inland Homes (AIM:INL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of INL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

INL (£0.33) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£11.89)

INL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

INL Stock Overview

Inland Homes plc operates as a real estate development company in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Trading at 97.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 40.58% per year

Earnings grew by 213.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Does not have a meaningful market cap (£74M)

Inland Homes Competitors

Caledonian Trust

AIM:CNN

UK£18.6m

Mountview Estates

LSE:MTVW

UK£506.9m

Harworth Group

LSE:HWG

UK£513.3m

Watkin Jones

AIM:WJG

UK£555.1m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Inland Homes
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£0.33
52 Week High	UK£0.60
52 Week Low	UK£0.27
Beta	1.33
1 Month Change	16.13%
3 Month Change	-25.99%
1 Year Change	-38.79%
3 Year Change	-52.19%
5 Year Change	-40.99%
Change since IPO	-40.46%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 20

What Does Inland Homes plc's (LON:INL) Share Price Indicate?

While Inland Homes plc ( LON:INL ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of...

Jul 02

Inland Homes (LON:INL) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...

Shareholder Returns

	INL	GB Real Estate	GB Market
7D	-6.4%	-1.2%	0.3%
1Y	-38.8%	-21.7%	-8.9%

Return vs Industry: INL underperformed the UK Real Estate industry which returned -23.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: INL underperformed the UK Market which returned -11.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is INL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
INL volatility
INL Average Weekly Movement	8.8%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	3.8%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.9%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: INL is more volatile than 75% of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: INL's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of UK stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2005	149	Stephen Wicks	https://www.inlandhomesplc.com

Inland Homes plc operates as a real estate development company in the United Kingdom. It develops brownfield projects. It operates through Land Sales, Asset Management Fees, Contract Income, House Building, Rental Income, Investment Properties, and Central Support segments.

Inland Homes Fundamentals Summary

How do Inland Homes's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
INL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£73.71m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£6.90m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£184.20m

10.7x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is INL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
INL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£184.20m
Cost of Revenue	UK£149.40m
Gross Profit	UK£34.80m
Other Expenses	UK£27.90m
Earnings	UK£6.90m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Sep 30, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.031
Gross Margin	18.89%
Net Profit Margin	3.74%
Debt/Equity Ratio	71.9%

How did INL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is INL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for INL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for INL. This is calculated by dividing INL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is INL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£73.71m

INL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does INL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

INL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for INL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	31.8x
CNN Caledonian Trust	31.4x	n/a	UK£18.6m
MTVW Mountview Estates	19.2x	n/a	UK£506.9m
HWG Harworth Group	5.5x	-36.5%	UK£513.3m
WJG Watkin Jones	70.9x	37.1%	UK£555.1m
INL Inland Homes	10.7x	40.6%	UK£73.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: INL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the peer average (31.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does INL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: INL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the UK Real Estate industry average (9.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is INL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

INL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.7x
Fair PE Ratio	19x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: INL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of INL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: INL (£0.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£11.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: INL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Inland Homes forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

40.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: INL's forecast earnings growth (40.6% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: INL's earnings (40.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (9.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: INL's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: INL's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: INL's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: INL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.5%).

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Past Performance

How has Inland Homes performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-22.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: INL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: INL's current net profit margins (3.7%) are higher than last year (1.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: INL's earnings have declined by 22.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: INL's earnings growth over the past year (213.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (-22.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: INL earnings growth over the past year (213.6%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 48.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: INL's Return on Equity (4%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Inland Homes's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: INL's short term assets (£254.2M) exceed its short term liabilities (£115.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: INL's short term assets (£254.2M) exceed its long term liabilities (£78.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: INL's net debt to equity ratio (56.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: INL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 72.4% to 71.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: INL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (35.5%).

Interest Coverage: INL's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Inland Homes's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate INL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate INL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if INL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if INL's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: INL is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as INL has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

15.4yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Stephen Wicks (71 yo)

no data

Tenure

UK£517,000

Compensation

Mr. Stephen Desmond Wicks founded Inland Homes PLC in June 2005 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Wicks has been an Executive Director of Inland Homes PLC since June 16, 2005. Mr. Wicks serves...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Stephen's total compensation ($USD633.65K) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD337.23K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Stephen's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: INL's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 15.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30