Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Merit Group plc (LON:MRIT) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Merit Group
What Is Merit Group's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 Merit Group had debt of UK£5.00m, up from UK£4.57m in one year. However, it also had UK£1.83m in cash, and so its net debt is UK£3.17m.
How Healthy Is Merit Group's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Merit Group had liabilities of UK£13.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of UK£7.19m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had UK£1.83m in cash and UK£4.59m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by UK£14.0m.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the UK£7.19m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Merit Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Merit Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Over 12 months, Merit Group reported revenue of UK£28m, which is a gain of 21%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.
Caveat Emptor
Even though Merit Group managed to grow its top line quite deftly, the cold hard truth is that it is losing money on the EBIT line. Indeed, it lost a very considerable UK£2.4m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above make us nervous about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it burned through UK£458k in negative free cash flow over the last year. That means it's on the risky side of things. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Merit Group .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About AIM:MRIT
Merit Group
Merit Group plc gathers, organizes, and enriches data that informs b2b intelligence brands in the United Kingdom, Belgium, the United States, France, Germany, and internationally.
Undervalued with excellent balance sheet.