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Petropavlovsk Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of POG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

POG (£0.01) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£0.46)

Is POG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of POG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: POG (£0.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£0.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: POG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for POG?

Key metric: As POG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for POG. This is calculated by dividing POG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is POG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	2.5x
Earnings	US$22.84m
Market Cap	US$56.91m

POG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.1x
PEG Ratio	0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does POG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for POG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	41.9x
SRB Serabi Gold	7.1x	45.0%	UK£61.3m
ALTN AltynGold	4.6x	n/a	UK£60.4m
AAU Ariana Resources	141.5x	n/a	UK£45.9m
SHG Shanta Gold	14.5x	n/a	UK£180.3m
POG Petropavlovsk	2.5x	12.5%	UK£47.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: POG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the peer average (4.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does POG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	9.9x	21.7%
POG Petropavlovsk	2.5x	12.5%	US$56.91m
ENPL En+ Group International	2.2x	8.0%	US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel	0.8x	n/a	US$4.08b

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	9.9x	21.7%
POG Petropavlovsk	2.5x	12.5%	US$56.91m

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Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: POG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (5.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is POG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

POG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	2.5x
Fair PE Ratio	8.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: POG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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