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Johnson Matthey Plc (LON:JMAT) Shares Could Be 48% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Johnson Matthey is UK£30.32 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of UK£15.75 suggests Johnson Matthey is potentially 48% undervalued
- The UK£20.04 analyst price target for JMAT is 34% less than our estimate of fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Johnson Matthey Plc (LON:JMAT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Johnson Matthey
The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF (£, Millions) | UK£360.0m | UK£185.3m | UK£225.7m | UK£272.0m | UK£330.0m | UK£372.7m | UK£408.5m | UK£438.1m | UK£462.6m | UK£483.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 12.95% | Est @ 9.59% | Est @ 7.25% | Est @ 5.60% | Est @ 4.45% |
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4% | UK£332 | UK£158 | UK£177 | UK£197 | UK£221 | UK£230 | UK£233 | UK£230 | UK£225 | UK£216 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£2.2b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.4%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£483m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8.4%– 1.8%) = UK£7.5b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£7.5b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)10= UK£3.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£5.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£15.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Johnson Matthey as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.203. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Johnson Matthey
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Chemicals market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Dividends are not covered by earnings.
- Annual revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Johnson Matthey, we've put together three relevant elements you should further examine:
- Risks: Take risks, for example - Johnson Matthey has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does JMAT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
About LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey
Engages in the clean air, catalyst and hydrogen technology, and platinum group metals (PGM) service businesses in the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, rest of North America, China, rest of Asia, and internationally.
Very undervalued with solid track record.