Stock Analysis

Does EVRAZ (LON:EVR) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

LSE:EVR
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies EVRAZ plc (LON:EVR) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

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How Much Debt Does EVRAZ Carry?

As you can see below, EVRAZ had US$4.84b of debt, at December 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.63b, its net debt is less, at about US$3.21b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
LSE:EVR Debt to Equity History April 12th 2021

How Healthy Is EVRAZ's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that EVRAZ had liabilities of US$3.11b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.68b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.63b and US$612.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$5.55b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since EVRAZ has a huge market capitalization of US$12.0b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

EVRAZ's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.5 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 5.3 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Unfortunately, EVRAZ's EBIT flopped 17% over the last four quarters. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine EVRAZ's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, EVRAZ produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 77% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Neither EVRAZ's ability to grow its EBIT nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that EVRAZ is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - EVRAZ has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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