Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Centamin plc's (LON:CEY) Interim Report

Centamin plc (LON:CEY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.0% to UK£1.21 in the week after its latest interim results. Revenues came in 2.4% below expectations, at US$465m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.078 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Centamin

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Centamin's nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.08b in 2024. This would reflect a notable 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 145% to US$0.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at UK£1.60. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Centamin analyst has a price target of UK£1.90 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£1.16. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Centamin's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 34% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Centamin is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£1.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Centamin. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Centamin going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Centamin that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com