Ariana Resources (AIM:AAU) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AAU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AAU (£0.03) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£0.16)

AAU fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

AAU Stock Overview

Ariana Resources plc engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resources in Turkey.

Rewards

Trading at 80% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 45.68% per year

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 3.6% per year over past 5 years

High level of non-cash earnings

Makes less than USD$1m in revenue (£0)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

+ 1 more risk

Ariana Resources Competitors

Serabi Gold

AIM:SRB

UK£29.2m

AltynGold

LSE:ALTN

UK£29.0m

Goldplat

AIM:GDP

UK£13.8m

Bluebird Merchant Ventures

LSE:BMV

UK£13.1m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ariana Resources
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£0.033
52 Week High	UK£0.05
52 Week Low	UK£0.029
Beta	0.51
1 Month Change	-1.49%
3 Month Change	-14.29%
1 Year Change	-28.26%
3 Year Change	50.00%
5 Year Change	140.00%
Change since IPO	-75.56%

Shareholder Returns

	AAU	GB Metals and Mining	GB Market
7D	4.8%	-0.04%	0.5%
1Y	-28.3%	-14.9%	-6.8%

Return vs Industry: AAU underperformed the UK Metals and Mining industry which returned -14.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AAU underperformed the UK Market which returned -6.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AAU's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AAU volatility
AAU Average Weekly Movement	5.8%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	7.8%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: AAU is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AAU's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2005	21	Ahmet Sener	https://arianaresources.com

Ariana Resources plc engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resources in Turkey. The company also explores for silver, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its projects include the Kiziltepe Gold-Silver mine and Tavsan gold project located in western Turkey; and Salinbas gold project located in north-eastern Turkey.

Ariana Resources Fundamentals Summary

How do Ariana Resources's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AAU fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£37.71m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£3.86m
Revenue (TTM)	n/a

9.8x

P/E Ratio

0.0x

P/S Ratio

Is AAU overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AAU income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£0
Cost of Revenue	UK£0
Gross Profit	UK£0
Other Expenses	-UK£3.86m
Earnings	UK£3.86m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.0034
Gross Margin	0.00%
Net Profit Margin	0.00%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.0%

How did AAU perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AAU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AAU. This is calculated by dividing AAU's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AAU's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£37.71m

AAU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-7.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AAU PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3x
SRB Serabi Gold	3.6x	n/a	UK£29.2m
ALTN AltynGold	1.9x	n/a	UK£29.0m
GDP Goldplat	4.5x	27.2%	UK£13.8m
BMV Bluebird Merchant Ventures	2.1x	n/a	UK£13.1m
AAU Ariana Resources	9.8x	n/a	UK£37.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (6.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AAU's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AAU (£0.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£0.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Ariana Resources forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

45.7%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the UK market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AAU's revenue (45.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAU's revenue (45.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Ariana Resources performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-3.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AAU has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's profit margins have improved over the past year.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AAU's earnings have declined by 3.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AAU's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AAU had negative earnings growth (-19%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (19.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AAU's Return on Equity (13.5%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Ariana Resources's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AAU's short term assets (£17.5M) exceed its short term liabilities (£2.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: AAU has no long term liabilities.

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AAU is debt free.

Reducing Debt: AAU has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AAU has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: AAU has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Ariana Resources's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AAU's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AAU's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AAU's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AAU has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Ahmet Sener (46 yo)

17.33yrs

Tenure

UK£248,000

Compensation

Dr. Ahmet Kerim Sener, B.Sc. (Hons.), M.Sc., DIC, Ph D., has been Managing Director and Executive Director at Ariana Resources plc since April 2005. He served as Non-Executive Chairman and Director of Pant...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ahmet's total compensation ($USD298.71K) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD336.69K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ahmet's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AAU's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AAU's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.4%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/07 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/05 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31