Stock Analysis

Positive earnings growth hasn't been enough to get Integrated Diagnostics Holdings (LON:IDHC) shareholders a favorable return over the last five years

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LSE:IDHC

It's nice to see the Integrated Diagnostics Holdings plc (LON:IDHC) share price up 12% in a week. But that can't change the reality that over the longer term (five years), the returns have been really quite dismal. Indeed, the share price is down 69% in the period. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. We'd err towards caution given the long term under-performance.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$22m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Integrated Diagnostics Holdings

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Integrated Diagnostics Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.8% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 18% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:IDHC Earnings and Revenue Growth February 27th 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Integrated Diagnostics Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Dividend Lost

The share price return figures discussed above don't include the value of dividends paid previously, but the total shareholder return (TSR) does. By accounting for the value of dividends paid, the TSR can be seen as a more complete measure of the value a company brings to its shareholders. Over the last 5 years, Integrated Diagnostics Holdings generated a TSR of -59%, which is, of course, better than the share price return. Even though the company isn't paying dividends at the moment, it has done in the past.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.8% in the twelve months, Integrated Diagnostics Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 35%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Integrated Diagnostics Holdings by clicking this link.

Integrated Diagnostics Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Integrated Diagnostics Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.