Heineken N.V.

LSE:0O26 Stock Report

Market Cap: €40.1b

Heineken Valuation

Is 0O26 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0O26 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0O26 (€71.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€246.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0O26 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0O26?

Key metric: As 0O26 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0O26. This is calculated by dividing 0O26's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0O26's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio38.1x
Earnings€1.05b
Market Cap€40.13b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0O26's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0O26 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.2x
DGE Diageo
17.1x3.9%UK£52.5b
CCH Coca-Cola HBC
19x11.9%UK£10.0b
ABF Associated British Foods
11.1x4.2%UK£16.1b
IMB Imperial Brands
9.6x0.8%UK£20.0b
0O26 Heineken
38.1x25.2%€40.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0O26 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.1x) compared to the peer average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0O26's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
0O26 38.1xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0O26 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.1x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0O26's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0O26 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio38.1x
Fair PE Ratio29.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0O26 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0O26 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€71.41
€94.27
+32.0%
12.2%€120.00€64.62n/a21
Nov ’25€75.59
€94.27
+24.7%
12.2%€120.00€64.62n/a21
Oct ’25€78.95
€95.46
+20.9%
13.5%€129.00€64.62n/a21
Sep ’25€81.74
€97.31
+19.0%
12.6%€129.00€69.54n/a21
Aug ’25€81.75
€97.64
+19.4%
13.3%€135.00€69.54n/a21
Jul ’25€89.70
€100.26
+11.8%
13.6%€135.00€69.54n/a21
Jun ’25€91.64
€100.22
+9.4%
13.5%€135.00€69.54n/a21
May ’25€91.30
€100.22
+9.8%
13.5%€135.00€69.54n/a21
Apr ’25€89.32
€98.55
+10.3%
12.7%€123.00€69.54n/a21
Mar ’25€85.23
€98.57
+15.7%
13.5%€123.00€69.54n/a22
Feb ’25€92.31
€102.25
+10.8%
12.7%€123.00€69.54n/a22
Jan ’25€91.93
€101.75
+10.7%
12.3%€119.00€69.54n/a22
Dec ’24€83.33
€102.41
+22.9%
13.5%€135.00€69.54n/a23
Nov ’24€84.75
€102.41
+20.8%
13.5%€135.00€69.54€75.5923
Oct ’24€83.63
€105.86
+26.6%
13.7%€135.00€69.54€78.9524
Sep ’24€90.07
€107.86
+19.8%
13.6%€135.00€69.54€81.7425
Aug ’24€89.30
€108.30
+21.3%
14.1%€135.00€69.54€81.7525
Jul ’24€94.12
€110.39
+17.3%
15.8%€145.00€69.54€89.7022
Jun ’24€94.67
€111.52
+17.8%
16.2%€145.00€69.54€91.6422
May ’24€103.95
€109.08
+4.9%
16.5%€145.00€69.54€91.3022
Apr ’24€99.10
€106.09
+7.1%
14.4%€130.00€69.54€89.3221
Mar ’24€96.71
€105.17
+8.7%
14.1%€130.00€69.54€85.2323
Feb ’24€92.46
€103.04
+11.4%
13.4%€128.00€69.54€92.3123
Jan ’24€88.54
€100.38
+13.4%
13.4%€120.00€69.54€91.9323
Dec ’23€91.16
€99.82
+9.5%
12.9%€120.00€69.54€83.3323
Nov ’23€83.52
€100.99
+20.9%
13.0%€120.00€69.54€84.7524

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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