Diageo plc

BATS-CHIXE:DGEL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£48.5b

Diageo Valuation

Is DGEL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DGEL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£31.26
Fair Value
30.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DGEL (£21.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£31.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DGEL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DGEL?

Key metric: As DGEL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DGEL. This is calculated by dividing DGEL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DGEL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$3.60b
Market CapUS$62.47b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DGEL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DGEL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
BATS British American Tobacco
22.9x16.0%UK£69.3b
CCH Coca-Cola HBC
18.2x8.8%UK£12.6b
IMB Imperial Brands
8.7x-4.3%UK£22.6b
ABF Associated British Foods
9.6x4.2%UK£14.0b
DGEL Diageo
17.4x7.3%UK£48.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DGEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DGEL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies9PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DGEL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DGEL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DGEL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DGEL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DGEL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£21.80
UK£25.23
+15.7%
12.2%UK£29.94UK£19.46n/a22
Mar ’26UK£21.63
UK£25.79
+19.2%
12.1%UK£30.66UK£19.93n/a22
Feb ’26UK£24.22
UK£26.64
+10.0%
10.8%UK£31.22UK£20.40n/a22
Jan ’26UK£25.34
UK£27.21
+7.4%
11.4%UK£31.33UK£20.03n/a22
Dec ’25UK£23.57
UK£26.46
+12.3%
11.3%UK£30.74UK£20.51n/a22
Nov ’25UK£24.04
UK£26.92
+12.0%
13.0%UK£33.29UK£20.28n/a22
Oct ’25UK£26.11
UK£26.01
-0.4%
12.9%UK£32.10UK£19.55n/a22
Sep ’25UK£24.77
UK£26.10
+5.4%
14.1%UK£33.50UK£19.42n/a22
Aug ’25UK£23.99
UK£27.61
+15.1%
15.1%UK£34.73UK£20.13n/a22
Jul ’25UK£24.85
UK£29.50
+18.7%
11.6%UK£35.09UK£23.06n/a22
Jun ’25UK£26.37
UK£29.90
+13.4%
12.4%UK£35.67UK£23.23n/a22
May ’25UK£27.41
UK£30.45
+11.1%
12.4%UK£36.39UK£23.70n/a22
Apr ’25UK£29.31
UK£30.08
+2.6%
11.8%UK£35.48UK£23.83n/a22
Mar ’25UK£29.63
UK£30.82
+4.0%
13.1%UK£41.05UK£24.02UK£21.6324
Feb ’25UK£28.94
UK£30.49
+5.4%
13.0%UK£40.65UK£23.65UK£24.2224
Jan ’25UK£28.62
UK£32.09
+12.1%
13.6%UK£41.04UK£24.70UK£25.3425
Dec ’24UK£28.12
UK£32.44
+15.4%
12.9%UK£40.78UK£24.49UK£23.5725
Nov ’24UK£31.34
UK£37.08
+18.3%
12.1%UK£46.38UK£29.47UK£24.0425
Oct ’24UK£30.37
UK£37.54
+23.6%
11.7%UK£46.24UK£30.29UK£26.1124
Sep ’24UK£32.03
UK£37.58
+17.3%
10.0%UK£44.80UK£29.56UK£24.7724
Aug ’24UK£34.12
UK£37.40
+9.6%
11.3%UK£47.14UK£29.13UK£23.9923
Jul ’24UK£33.83
UK£37.86
+11.9%
11.7%UK£47.64UK£26.24UK£24.8523
Jun ’24UK£33.43
UK£39.43
+17.9%
12.5%UK£48.52UK£26.47UK£26.3723
May ’24UK£36.23
UK£39.75
+9.7%
12.4%UK£49.02UK£26.12UK£27.4123
Apr ’24UK£36.14
UK£40.02
+10.7%
12.8%UK£51.18UK£26.26UK£29.3123
Mar ’24UK£35.28
UK£41.07
+16.4%
12.8%UK£52.54UK£27.26UK£29.6325
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 22 Analysts
UK£25.20
Fair Value
13.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/10 06:10
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/10 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Diageo plc is covered by 69 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anna ZyniewiczAlphaValue
John StaszakArgus Research Company
Barry CoppelBanco Santander