Danone S.A.

BATS-CHIXE:BNP Stock Report

Market Cap: €41.6b

Danone Valuation

Is BNP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BNP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BNP (€64.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€97.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BNP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BNP?

Key metric: As BNP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BNP. This is calculated by dividing BNP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BNP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio41.5x
Earnings€1.00b
Market Cap€41.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BNP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BNP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.6x
ABF Associated British Foods
11x5.6%UK£16.1b
TATE Tate & Lyle
21.2x19.3%UK£3.3b
CWK Cranswick
23.1x8.8%UK£2.7b
PFD Premier Foods
15.2x6.3%UK£1.7b
BNP Danone
41.5x18.5%€41.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the peer average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BNP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies18PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BNP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BNP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio41.5x
Fair PE Ratio26.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BNP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€64.77
€67.07
+3.5%
9.4%€80.00€55.00n/a22
Nov ’25€66.25
€66.61
+0.5%
8.5%€75.00€55.00n/a22
Oct ’25€65.43
€64.20
-1.9%
9.6%€72.00€55.00n/a22
Sep ’25€61.43
€63.97
+4.1%
9.2%€72.00€55.00n/a22
Aug ’25€59.77
€63.67
+6.5%
9.2%€72.00€55.00n/a22
Jul ’25€58.04
€63.40
+9.2%
9.3%€72.00€53.00n/a22
Jun ’25€59.11
€63.45
+7.3%
9.5%€72.00€53.00n/a22
May ’25€58.80
€63.22
+7.5%
10.2%€72.00€50.00n/a22
Apr ’25€59.81
€63.01
+5.4%
10.6%€72.00€50.00n/a22
Mar ’25€59.00
€62.58
+6.1%
11.1%€72.00€49.00n/a23
Feb ’25€62.23
€61.82
-0.7%
11.4%€72.00€49.00n/a23
Jan ’25n/a
€59.24
0%
12.6%€70.00€47.50n/a22
Dec ’24€58.90
€58.92
+0.05%
12.4%€70.00€47.50n/a22
Nov ’24€57.12
€59.01
+3.3%
12.2%€70.00€47.50€66.2522
Oct ’24€51.97
€58.81
+13.2%
13.1%€70.00€43.00€65.4322
Sep ’24€53.88
€59.28
+10.0%
13.3%€71.00€43.00€61.4324
Aug ’24€56.41
€60.08
+6.5%
12.3%€71.00€43.00€59.7723
Jul ’24€55.60
€60.23
+8.3%
12.4%€70.00€43.00€58.0422
Jun ’24€55.08
€59.77
+8.5%
13.1%€70.00€43.00€59.1122
May ’24€59.82
€59.18
-1.1%
13.1%€70.00€43.00€58.8022
Apr ’24€56.74
€57.61
+1.5%
14.1%€70.00€43.00€59.8122
Mar ’24€53.22
€57.06
+7.2%
13.9%€70.00€43.00€59.0023
Feb ’24€50.55
€55.47
+9.7%
15.1%€70.00€41.00€62.2322
Jan ’24€49.32
€57.02
+15.6%
14.3%€70.00€41.00n/a22
Dec ’23€50.72
€57.15
+12.7%
12.2%€70.00€41.00€58.9023
Nov ’23€50.47
€57.37
+13.7%
12.4%€70.00€41.00€57.1224

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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