M.P. Evans Group PLC

AIM:MPE Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£507.7m

M.P. Evans Group Valuation

Is MPE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MPE (£9.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£31.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPE?

Key metric: As MPE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MPE. This is calculated by dividing MPE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MPE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.8x
EarningsUS$65.99m
Market CapUS$641.60m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MPE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MPE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.9x
AEP Anglo-Eastern Plantations
6.1xn/aUK£271.3m
WYN Wynnstay Group
12.1xn/aUK£70.9m
BAKK Bakkavor Group
11.7x11.2%UK£751.9m
HFG Hilton Food Group
17.5x10.5%UK£821.7m
MPE M.P. Evans Group
9.8x1.2%UK£507.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MPE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MPE 9.8xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies16PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.8x
Fair PE Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£9.72
UK£12.99
+33.6%
8.1%UK£13.96UK£11.53n/a3
Nov ’25UK£9.42
UK£12.68
+34.6%
8.1%UK£14.02UK£11.51n/a3
Oct ’25UK£9.64
UK£12.68
+31.6%
8.1%UK£14.02UK£11.51n/a3
Sep ’25UK£8.64
UK£12.24
+41.7%
4.4%UK£12.75UK£11.49n/a3
Aug ’25UK£8.52
UK£12.24
+43.7%
4.4%UK£12.75UK£11.49n/a3
Jul ’25UK£8.60
UK£12.27
+42.6%
6.3%UK£13.04UK£11.49n/a2
Jan ’25UK£7.40
UK£12.18
+64.6%
6.5%UK£12.98UK£11.38n/a2
Dec ’24UK£7.46
UK£12.21
+63.7%
6.6%UK£13.02UK£11.41n/a2
Nov ’24UK£7.52
UK£12.21
+62.4%
6.6%UK£13.02UK£11.41UK£9.422
Oct ’24UK£7.50
UK£12.21
+62.9%
6.6%UK£13.02UK£11.41UK£9.642
Sep ’24UK£7.34
UK£12.34
+68.2%
7.5%UK£13.27UK£11.41UK£8.642
Aug ’24UK£7.06
UK£12.18
+72.6%
6.6%UK£12.98UK£11.39UK£8.522
Jul ’24UK£7.00
UK£12.20
+74.3%
6.6%UK£13.00UK£11.40UK£8.602
Jun ’24UK£7.70
UK£12.18
+58.1%
6.6%UK£12.97UK£11.38UK£8.522
May ’24UK£8.44
UK£12.18
+44.3%
6.6%UK£12.97UK£11.38UK£8.262
Apr ’24UK£8.86
UK£12.18
+37.4%
6.6%UK£12.97UK£11.38UK£8.102
Mar ’24UK£8.14
UK£12.06
+48.2%
3.8%UK£12.52UK£11.60UK£7.742
Feb ’24UK£8.22
UK£10.98
+33.6%
3.9%UK£11.41UK£10.56UK£7.442
Jan ’24UK£8.10
UK£10.95
+35.2%
4.0%UK£11.38UK£10.52UK£7.402
Dec ’23UK£9.02
UK£11.62
+28.8%
0.8%UK£11.72UK£11.52UK£7.462
Nov ’23UK£8.24
UK£11.62
+41.0%
0.8%UK£11.72UK£11.52UK£7.522

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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