Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

The stock was sluggish on the back of Harbour Energy plc's (LON:HBR) recent earnings report. Our analysis suggests that there are some reasons for hope that investors should be aware of.

Check out our latest analysis for Harbour Energy

Examining Cashflow Against Harbour Energy's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to December 2023, Harbour Energy had an accrual ratio of -0.75. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$1.3b, well over the US$32.0m it reported in profit. Harbour Energy's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Harbour Energy's Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, Harbour Energy produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Harbour Energy's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for Harbour Energy and we think they deserve your attention.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Harbour Energy's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.