Hargreaves Lansdown plc

BATS-CHIXE:HLL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£5.2b

Hargreaves Lansdown Valuation

Is HLL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HLL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HLL (£10.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£13.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HLL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HLL?

Key metric: As HLL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HLL. This is calculated by dividing HLL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HLL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.6x
EarningsUK£293.20m
Market CapUK£5.16b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HLL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HLL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20x
SDR Schroders
13.2x12.9%UK£5.0b
ICG Intermediate Capital Group
15.2x11.7%UK£6.1b
BPT Bridgepoint Group
42x33.2%UK£2.8b
PHLL Petershill Partners
9.5x34.7%UK£2.6b
HLL Hargreaves Lansdown
17.6x1.6%UK£5.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HLL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (20x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HLL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PNIX Phoenix Digital Assets
1.2xn/aUS$34.29m
IX. i(x) Net Zero
0.1xn/aUS$8.94m
APQ APQ Global
0.4xn/aUS$5.78m
MAFL Mineral & Financial Investments
2xn/aUS$5.00m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies19PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HLL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the UK Capital Markets industry average (12.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HLL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HLL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.6x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HLL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HLL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£10.89
UK£11.23
+3.1%
7.7%UK£13.42UK£9.38n/a12
Nov ’25UK£10.88
UK£11.23
+3.1%
7.7%UK£13.42UK£9.38n/a12
Oct ’25UK£11.13
UK£10.83
-2.7%
12.2%UK£13.42UK£7.60n/a13
Sep ’25UK£11.04
UK£10.78
-2.3%
13.4%UK£13.42UK£6.95n/a13
Aug ’25UK£10.98
UK£10.19
-7.1%
20.1%UK£13.42UK£6.85n/a14
Jul ’25UK£11.30
UK£9.84
-12.9%
22.3%UK£13.42UK£6.30n/a14
Jun ’25UK£10.53
UK£9.36
-11.1%
25.1%UK£15.00UK£6.30n/a17
May ’25UK£8.05
UK£9.31
+15.6%
26.2%UK£15.00UK£6.20n/a17
Apr ’25UK£7.39
UK£9.22
+24.7%
27.5%UK£15.00UK£6.00n/a18
Mar ’25UK£7.37
UK£9.22
+25.1%
27.5%UK£15.00UK£6.00n/a18
Feb ’25UK£7.57
UK£9.63
+27.2%
32.2%UK£17.00UK£6.00n/a18
Jan ’25UK£7.31
UK£9.64
+31.8%
32.5%UK£17.00UK£6.00n/a18
Dec ’24UK£7.12
UK£9.66
+35.7%
32.2%UK£17.00UK£6.00n/a18
Nov ’24UK£7.12
UK£9.97
+40.0%
30.1%UK£17.00UK£6.00UK£10.8817
Oct ’24UK£7.72
UK£10.25
+32.8%
29.9%UK£17.25UK£6.60UK£11.1318
Sep ’24UK£7.65
UK£9.96
+30.2%
28.2%UK£16.50UK£6.50UK£11.0419
Aug ’24UK£8.40
UK£10.10
+20.3%
26.5%UK£16.50UK£7.00UK£10.9819
Jul ’24UK£8.19
UK£10.02
+22.4%
27.5%UK£16.79UK£7.00UK£11.3019
Jun ’24UK£8.07
UK£10.15
+25.9%
27.3%UK£16.79UK£7.00UK£10.5318
May ’24UK£8.02
UK£10.19
+27.0%
26.7%UK£16.79UK£7.00UK£8.0518
Apr ’24UK£7.99
UK£10.07
+26.0%
26.8%UK£16.79UK£6.61UK£7.3920
Mar ’24UK£8.38
UK£10.14
+20.9%
26.2%UK£16.79UK£6.61UK£7.3720
Feb ’24UK£8.82
UK£10.31
+16.9%
22.8%UK£16.50UK£7.80UK£7.5719
Jan ’24UK£8.60
UK£10.34
+20.3%
22.2%UK£16.50UK£7.80UK£7.3120
Dec ’23UK£8.50
UK£10.39
+22.3%
22.0%UK£16.50UK£7.80UK£7.1220
Nov ’23UK£7.89
UK£10.66
+35.2%
24.8%UK£16.50UK£7.80UK£7.1220

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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