Whitbread plc Just Missed EPS By 29%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Whitbread plc (LON:WTB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 6.4% to UK£27.04. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of UK£2.9b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 29% to hit UK£1.41 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Whitbread. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, Whitbread's 17 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be UK£2.92b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 47% to UK£2.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£2.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£2.11 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Whitbread

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of UK£34.64, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Whitbread, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£47.00 and the most bearish at UK£27.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.2% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 21% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Whitbread is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Whitbread's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£34.64, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Whitbread going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Whitbread you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.