Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:0H59 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
LSE:0H59 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Accor's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a moderate discount (< 20%).
Accor's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Accor's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Accor's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Accor's revenue is expected to grow by 7.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Accor's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Sébastien M. Bazin serves as the Vice-Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Buffalo Grill S.A. Mr. Bazin has been Acting Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Accor S.A. since 2013 and its Director since January 9, 2006. Mr. Bazin has been a Director of General Electric Company since April 2016. Mr. Bazin served as Chief Executive Officer of Europe Colony Capital, a private investment firm since 1997 until 2013. Previously, Mr. Bazin was with Colony Capital, a private-equity firm, from 1997 to 2012, during which time he managed and participated in a large number of investments in the hospitality industry. Prior to that, he served as a member of the Supervisory Board of Accor S.A. since May 3, 2005. He served as Group Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager of Immobilière Hôtelière since 1992 until 1997. He began his career in 1985 in US finance sector, becoming Vice President of M&A at PaineWebber. He serves as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Accor Hotels. He has been Director of Huazhu Group Limited (formerly known as, China Lodging Group) since January 2016. He served as Vice Chairman of Carrefour, a multinational French retailer. He has been Chief Executive Officer and Chairman at AccorHotels since August 27, 2013. He serves as Chairman of Théâtre du Châtelet. In 1997, he joined Colony Capital, a private-equity firm, to set up and develop its European operations. During his 15 years with the firm, he managed and participated in a large number of investments in the hospitality industry (including the acquisition of luxury hotel chains Fairmont and Raffles), the acquisition and management of hotel assets from Compagnie Générale des Eaux and Club Méditerranée, the acquisition of an equity stake in the Lucien Barrière Group, and the investment in AccorHotels. He is also Vice-Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Gustave Roussy Foundation. He is Director at Adagio SAS. He was Legal Manager at La Tour S.à.r.l., La Tour Réseau de Soins SA and Permanence de la Clinique Carouge. He was Chairman at RSI and Colyzeo Investment Management Ltd. He was Managing Director at Sisters Soparf. He is Chairman at Bazeo Europe SAS. He was Chairman at Colony Capital SAS, Colfilm SAS, Colkirch France SAS, Data 4 SAS, Lucia Investissement SAS and ColSpa SAS. He was Director at Edenred. He was Member of Supervisory Board at ANF Immobilier (Les Ateliers du Nord de la France). He was CEO at Toulouse Cancéropole SAS and ColSpa SAS. He was Legal Manager at SC Georges V 302, Colmed and Société du Savoy à Méribel. He was Managing Partner at SCI MB (anciennement Madeleine Michelis) and SCI Ranelagh. He is Legal Manager at CC Europe Invest and SARL Rohan. He is Manager Partner at Bazeo Invest SNC, SCI Nina and SCI Haute Roche. He is Director at Sisters Soparf. He was Chief Executive Officer at Colony Capital Europe. He was Chairman and CEO at Société d’Exploitation Sports & Événements SA and Holding Sports & Événements SA. He holds MA in Economics, and MBA from Sorbonne University. He holds BA at Sorbonne University in 1985.
Sébastien's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
Sébastien's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Accor management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Chairman & CEO
Deputy Chief Executive Officer
Senior Vice President
Vice President of Media Relations Worldwide
Global Chief Marketing & Distribution Officer
Chief Talent & Culture Officer
Global Chief Partners & Hotel Services Officer
Chief Executive Officer of Asia-Pacific
Senior Vice President of Customer Relations & Loyalty
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Accor board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Accor SA operates a chain of hotels worldwide. It operates through three segments: HotelServices, Hotel Assets & Others, and New Businesses. The company owns, operates, manages, and franchises hotels. It also provides digital solutions to independent hotel operators and restaurant owners through Fastbooking, Availpro, ResDiary, and Adoria platforms; and hotel booking services for travels agencies and corporates through Gekko solutions. In addition, the company offers concierge services; and digital sales through VeryChic, which offers private sales with luxury and high-end partner, as well as rents private luxury homes comprising onefinestay, Travel Keys, and Squarebreak. Accor SA was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.
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