MJ Gleeson plc (LON:GLE) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a pretty great week for MJ Gleeson plc (LON:GLE) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to UK£3.80 in the week since its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of UK£366m were in line with what the analysts predicted, MJ Gleeson surprised by delivering a statutory profit of UK£0.27 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MJ Gleeson's seven analysts is for revenues of UK£411.4m in 2026. This would reflect a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 13% to UK£0.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£409.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.31 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for MJ Gleeson

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of UK£5.33, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic MJ Gleeson analyst has a price target of UK£6.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£4.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that MJ Gleeson is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£5.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MJ Gleeson. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MJ Gleeson going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for MJ Gleeson that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.